Darin BrownHIV vaccine by — 2030
Posted by Henry Bauer on 2015/01/24
HIV Vaccine Will Be Ready By 2030, According To Bill Gates
No comment is needed, surely.
Just as well, because I wouldn’t know what to say or where to begin saying something.
Or maybe I could note that when I was still doing research, I would have hesitated to ask for funds on the grounds that I knew that I would get specific results after 15 years.
And further, I’m really quite curious to know what it is about the present state of knowledge that allows such an estimate to be made. It’s hard not to become jocular by referring to Nostradamus, extrasensory perception, and the like.
But then again, this is actually less into the future than the physicists’ estimates for a working nuclear fusion reactor.
HIV/AIDS Skepticism 
Karim D. Ghantous said
Don’t knock ESP. 🙂 I have looked into that and I like the quality of the research. Skeptics have actually strengthened my opinion of parapsychology. I think listening to everybody is a good way to approach science. That’s how I became an AGW skeptic.
The article had some choice quotes in it. Here are a couple that stood out for me:
“The other tool would be more intense drug therapies.”
Wait just a cotton pickin’ minute! One of the, ahem, ‘breakthroughs’ in AIDS treatment was the realization that less medicine (e.g. AZT) improved life expectancy. Of course it just meant that the patients got less poisoned. But still, I think people are forgetting history – as they usually do.
“On December 9, the Inquisitr reported on a study that indicated the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) is weakening in its ability to develop into AIDS.”
Oh, I see: on the one hand, HIV mutates like crazy; on the other hand, it mutates in a fashion that weakens it somehow. Got it. Or maybe HIV is becoming compassionate and realizing that it can have it both ways: replicate in humans while not harming them.
“Previous studies have confirmed that people with a gene that synthesizes a variant of the human leukocyte antigen (HLA), called HLA-B*57, have an increased ability to resist HIV infection.”
Nope. All it means is that if you have that gene, HIV tests are less likely to react to it.
So – how did I go, considering I’m a scientific amateur? I do think you are right that HIV does not exist. Which makes all this even more laughable. The writers of ‘Yes, Minister’, if creating the show today, would have a field day with AIDS research.
Henry Bauer said
Karim D. Ghantous:
You did real good!
I don’t actually knock ESP altogether, just as an accurate and reliable predicter. I’m a long-time member of the Society for Scientific Exploration which has a lot of people interested in and investigating psychic phenomena. My present best guess is that ESP is not controllable to any great or reliable degree, but that occasionally and spontaneously one may get information that way. Some very competent studies indicate that psychokinesis also exists, but can exert only a very very very small effect away from chance.
Guy said
The December 9 article reminded me of the movie “Andromeda Strain”, where is seemed, towards the end, that billions of microbes simultaneously mutated in the same manner. Not my understanding of how evolution works, but then I am also a very amateur scientist.
Karim D. Ghantous (@kdghantous) said
Guy, I have read that novel, but many years ago. I don’t remember that bit about the simultaneous mutation. It is plausible, only just, because of the observations made of schools of fish which change direction simultaneously. But even then, we have no observations of simultaneous mutation among any microbe, under any circumstance – or do we? We would all love to know, I’m sure!
P.S. I’m a big Crichton fan. His death was a significant loss to society.
Ban Aids Denialism now! said
Actually HB doesn’t post more than a selection of his posts here, because usually the readers already know what he’s going to say anyway. But then you knew that already of course.
Guy said
BADN, I am trying to decipher what you are saying. “HB doesn’t post more than a selection of his posts here…”. What makes it a post if he does not post it? Does he post it someplace else? Does he write it out then not post it?
Insofar as knowing what he’s going to say: He will say something consistent with the paradigm that there is no sexually transmitted virus causing AIDS.
Ban Aids Denialism now! said
Ohhh…. He posts his other posts telepathically. And the knowledge is of exactly what he’s going to say rather than just the general paradigm. Sometimes you can be too clever for your own good.
Guy said
Karim, I saw the movie (Andromeda Strain) and did not read the book. I also had the good fortune to scuba dive over a few months many years ago and saw a large school of fish at one location like you mentioned. Beautiful and amazing.
My understanding of the theory of evolution is that there are constant random mutations in the DNA of organisms, some of which give a competitive advantage to the host. If the advantage is sufficient organisms carrying the mutation will increase in number faster than organisms without the advantage. If the advantaged hosts are competing for the same scarce food supply, then they will, over time, replace the disadvantaged organisms. Alternatively, the females of the species will prefer to mate with the carriers of the advantaged qualities and increase those qualities in the gene pool in that manner. Both of these mechanisms might be working in the case of “Africanized Bees” replacing native bees in their march northward (have not heard anything in awhile though). I cannot see how this would affect AIDS. Hypothetically, you could have both types of microbes in your system simultaneously. One of them would be killing you and the other not. It is not clear that one would necessarily displace the other. An alternative hypothesis, of course, is that the one that triggers the positive response on your “HIV” test is the one that will kill you.
Ban Aids Denialism now! said
It’s been known for decades that fusion power is just 30 years away. It’s a well-established fact now. The problems are well-understood. You just have to create on earth the same conditions you find inside the sun. Not exactly rocket science.
Guy said
When I first read your post I thought you were being cleverly ironic (sarcastic according to modern usage). Based on your name and other postings I am not so sure. Another way of saying it according to my original interpretation would be “for decades fusion power has been just 30 years away and it always will be”.
Ban Aids Denialism now! said
Ohhh…. (2)
i’m afraid if you didn’t get the attempted joke first time it’s probably too late now! HB already knows where I’m coming from so he would have seen its intent.
David Bailey said
Unfortunately I feel that a number of areas of science have clearly become hopelessly dogmatic, and it drains my belief in recent science altogether. I agree there is quite a lot of good quality evidence for a variety of psychic phenomena in general, and I would recommend http://www.skeptiko.com (and particularly its forum discussions) for some good information on this subject.
Another area of dysfunctional science is the whole saturated fat/cholesterol/statins blunder. I am becoming increasingly hopeful that this will blow up soon, because I find that a lot of people seem to be aware of this scandal,and to be changing their diet accordingly and ‘just saying no’ to statins! I feel that if we can get one area of corrupt science fully exposed in the press, the others – such as AIDS – will follow because journalists will feel emboldened.
Anyway, I am an optimist!
Henry Bauer said
David Bailey:
For examples and analysis of teh dogmatism of recent science, please see my book Dogmatism in Science and Medicine: How Dominant Theories Monopolize Research and Stifle the Search for Truth, 2012. An earlier article is “21st century science”.
Re statins and what’s wrong with modern drug-based medicine, see “Seeking immortality” and a representative bibliography of dozens of books and articles.
Ban Aids Denialism now! said
Statins – Actually the Establishment front is cracking (to some extent at least) under pressure of lack of credibility. Only yesterday a blistering front page article in Daily Express about how professors are condemning NHS plans to PAY GPs (doctors) to prescribe the statins. And this article in Guardian.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/01/nhs-drugs-companies-wasting-money-trials-nice
I think the blogosphere / commentosphere is having a major impact. In the past those who thought differently tended to be isolated, unable to see their colleagues, but now we can see in comments what fellow heretics are thinking. And for instance the us/k lies about the mythical Russian expansionism aren’t fooling everyone.
Also there’s recently been a whole succession of blistering books. Latest I’ve noticed is “Dissolving Illusions: Disease, Vaccines, and The Forgotten History” Humphries S, Bystrianyk R 2013 17 neg revs, 99 5s 4 4s.
Ban Aids Denialism now! said
In that Guardian article:
“Yet, increasingly, doctors are refusing to allow transparency and objectivity to be trumped by eminence and vested interests. A survey in Pulse, a publication for GPs, in October revealed that two-thirds of GPs were rejecting Nice advice to offer statins to those at low risk. Such an unprecedented revolt would be less likely in the US where despite 84% of doctors expressing concerns about industry influence over clinical guidelines, fear of malpractice suits drives many to adhere to them.”