HIV/AIDS Skepticism

Pointing to evidence that HIV is not the necessary and sufficient cause of AIDS

Posts Tagged ‘Uganda’

Recent HIV/AIDS tidbits in the “news”

Posted by Henry Bauer on 2009/04/06

My initial purpose for this blog was to comment on the perpetual stream of “news” that continually underscore the fact that HIV/AIDS theory is wrong, incapable of giving satisfactory explanations for so many reported happenings. As it turns out, I’ve also been delighted at the new things I’ve learned from readers: Tony Lance, for example, provided a sorely needed understanding of what precisely about the “fast-lane” lifestyle could lead to life-threatening fungal infections of PCP or candidiasis.

A distraction came recently with the publication of Seth Kalichman’s extraordinarily bad book. My first impulse was to ignore it in the same way as I ignore the red herrings and  intemperate flaming of bloggers who are no less ignorant about science, its nature and history, than Kalichman is. But then I decided that a thoroughgoing exposé of his unethical behavior as well as his factual mistakes would have some value for the Rethinking cause, and quite a few recent blog posts reflect that decision. There are a lot more to come, because the depth of his duplicity hasn’t yet been plumbed, let alone the startlingly gross errors of fact in his book. But I thought I’d get back also to some commenting on recent “news”:

“Health experts last week warned that in addition to people mistakenly taking only one test, conditions for misuse of rapid diagnostic HIV test kits exist in the country [Uganda] and can lead to deceptive results.”

Not only “can”, but do and have for a long time. Moreover, the same media that are apparently aware of this continue at the same time to disseminate absurdly and obviously wrong “data”, for example, in the same story,
“Uganda has managed to reduce the HIV/Aids prevalence form [sic] 18 percent in the early 90s to 5 percent by 2000 and now ranging between 6 -6.4 percent.”

The only way to reduce the “infection rate” of a fatal incurable disease is to kill off “infected” people and not replace them via new infections; or, to increase the population; or both. Therefore, a reduction from 18% to 5% during the 1990s means that 13 percent of the population died, or the total population increased 3.6 fold (annual rate of  ~14 %!), or some combination of those two — provided there were no new “infections”, which in itself could not be expected.

In actual fact, however, the growth rate of the population was estimated at only 3.37% in mid-2008.  The crude birth rate of about 5% was only comparable to other countries in the region (Country Studies/Area Handbook Series, U.S. Department of the Army ) and the death rate of 1.8% was also comparable to that of other countries in the region. The only rational — and eminently plausible — explanation of the decreased “HIV infection” rate during the 1990s is the unreliability of the statistics. Nevertheless, Uganda’s “success” in decreasing “HIV infections” through educational and prevention and behavioral-change initiatives has become a shibboleth of HIV/AIDS dogma. It has also served to make Uganda a favored place to send dollars to fight HIV/AIDS.

“HIV” tests reflect — something, but not a pathogenic virus
The epidemiology of “HIV” tests among different population groups demonstrates that testing  “HIV-positive” may reflect a variety of physiological conditions, many of them by no means health-threatening, let alone life-threatening (for example, Figure 22, p. 83,  in The Origin, Persistence and Failings of HIV/AIDS Theory) . The classic review by Christine Johnson identifies dozens of conditions that can produce misleading  “HIV-positive” indications (“Whose antibodies are they anyway? Factors known to cause false positive HIV antibody test results”, Continuum 4 [#3, Sept./Oct.] ).

One can therefore predict that an endlessly increasing range of things will be found to conduce to “HIV infection”. A recent such triumph is the discovery that “periodontal disease” can awaken the latently sleeping “HIV”:
ScienceDaily (Apr. 3, 2009) — New research from Japan suggests that periodontal disease could act as a risk factor for reactivating latent HIV-1 in affected individuals.”
This is just the sort of fear-inducing “news” that the media love to seize on:
Gum Disease May Reactivate AIDS Virus
04.02.09, 08:00 PM EDT
Japanese study points to good oral health as a means to prevent spread of HIV” .
Not only the popular media, but also the EurekAlert service of that flagship of scientific periodicals, Science magazine:
“Can periodontal disease act as a risk factor for HIV-1?”

“HIV” “transmission” in Georgia prisons:
Possibly stimulated by misleading propaganda from ignorant AIDS activists (“AIDS activists spout b***s***; media pass it on”, 3 April 2009), the Georgia House of Representatives passed a bill requiring “HIV” testing of prisoners being released. One can only hope that the tests will not be those “rapid” ones that were banned in San Francisco for their blatant inaccuracy.

“HIV-positive” is not sexually transmitted:
Much data cited in my book and on this blog reinforce the conclusion that “HIV” isn’t sexually transmitted and that having an STD (chlamydia, gonorrhea, herpes, syphilis) does NOT — contrary to a common HIV/AIDS shibboleth — predispose to becoming “HIV-positive”. Here’s yet more evidence to those effects:
“Cases of sexually transmitted disease increased in Minnesota in 2008, according to data released by the Minnesota Department of Health on Wednesday. Young men and women accounted for the bulk of the increase . . .
the 2008 chlamydia data . . . saw a 13-percent increase among 15- to 24-year-old males, compared to the 2007 report.
. . . . With gonorrhea cases, the Twin Cities and suburban areas saw a drop in the number of cases, and Greater Minnesota saw a 14-percent increase . . . . Statewide, about six out of 10 cases occurred among those between the ages of 15 and 24.
. . .
In all, there were 14,250 cases of chlamydia reported to the health department, 3,036 cases of gonorrhea and 263 cases of syphilis. Chlamydia and syphilis rates have been rising for the last decade while gonorrhea rates have remained somewhat stable.”

By contrast, the total number of new “HIV/AIDS” cases in 2007 was about 300, about 200 of them “non-AIDS HIV” (Minnesota HIV Surveillance Report, 2007) .
In other words, “HIV” incidence in Minnesota is about 50 times less than chlamydia, 10 times less than gonorrhea, and comparable only to syphilis.
Note too, that while “HIV” is always about 4 times as high in urban than in rural areas, the opposite was seen with gonorrhea last year. And, once again, genuine STDs affect people aged between 15 and 24 whereas “HIV”, “AIDS”, “HIV/AIDS” deaths, all affect primarily people aged 35-45 (for example, Deaths from “HIV disease”: Why has the median age drifted upwards?, 18 February 2009).

Outsourcing; and government’s left and right hands:
“WASHINGTON — The last U.S.-based supplier of condoms for global HIV/AIDS prevention programs could be forced to shut its doors because the federal government sent the work to cheaper suppliers in Asia.
The change came earlier this month as Congress dropped a requirement that the government buy American-made condoms when possible, with exceptions for price and availability.
Congress traditionally has directed the U.S. Agency for International Development to use American suppliers for the hundreds of millions of condoms it sends into developing countries. The main supplier to benefit from that directive is Alatech Healthcare Products, a southeastern Alabama company with about 300 employees.
Over the years, Alatech became the program’s sole U.S. provider.
USAID says Alatech has had problems filling orders, and there were complaints from the field about the quality of its condoms.
Despite Congress’ direction, the agency has gradually outsourced part of the work to companies in Asia that provide condoms for less than half of Alatech’s price.”

Posted in Funds for HIV/AIDS, HIV tests, HIV varies with age, HIV/AIDS numbers, sexual transmission, uncritical media | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Bibliography to Fiala’s “Lieben wir gefährlich?”

Posted by Henry Bauer on 2008/09/28

In response to a query by commentator Martin, Dr. Christian Fiala sent the bibliography for his book:

1. Definition

1.06 CDC, Pneumocystis pneumonia- Los Angeles, Morbidity and mortality weekly report (MMWR), 1981; 30: 250-2
1.07 CDC, KS and PcP among homosexual men – New York City and California, MMWR, 1981; 30: 305-8
1.08 CDC, Update on Kaposi’s sarcoma and opportunistic infections in previously healthy persons – US, MMWR, 1982; 31: 294,300-1
1.0 Barré-Sinoussi et al; Isolation of a T-lymphocyte retrovirus from a patient at risk for Aids, Science, 1983; 220: 868 71
1.1 Gallo et al, Frequent detection and isolation of cytopathic retroviruses (HTLV-III) from patients with AIDS and at risk for AIDS, Science, 1984, 224, 500 3
1.3 Centers for Disease Control (CDC), Update on acquired immune deficiency syndrom (Aids) – United States, MMWR, 1982, Vol 31, no 37;  507 14
1.4 CDC, Revision of the case definition of Aids for national reporting – United Stated, MMWR, 1985, Vol 34; 373 5
1.5 CDC, Revision of the CDC surveillance case definition for Aids, MMWR, 1987, Vol 36; 1 15 S
1.6 CDC, 1993 Revised classification system for HIV infection and expanded surveillance case definition for Aids among adolescents and adults, MMWR, 1992, December 18, Vol 41, no RR 17; 1 19
1.7 CDC; Update: Impact of the expanded Aids surveillance case definition for adolescents and adults on case reporting – United Stated, MMWR, 1994, march 11, Vol 43 no 9; 160 70
1.8 Steward; Canging case-definition for AIDS, The Lancet, 1992, Vol 340, Dec 5; 1414
1.9 Ancelle-Park R et al; Impact of 1993 revision of adult/adolescent AIDS surveillance case definition for Europe,Lancet, 1995; 345, 789 90
1.10 CDC; 1994 revised classification system for HIV infection in children less than 13 years of age, MMWR, 1994; 43 (RR 12): 1 10
1.11 Selik-RM et al; Impact of the 1987 revision of the case definition of acquired immune deficiency syndrome in the United States., J-Acquir-Immune-Defic-Syndr, 1990; 3(1): 73 82
1.12 Vella-S et al; Differential survival of patients with AIDS according to the 1987 and 1993 CDC case definitions, JAMA, 1994; Apr 20; 271(15): 1197 9
1.13 Stehr-Green-JK et al; Potential effect of revising the CDC surveillance case definition for AIDS, Lancet, 1988; Mar 5; 1(8584): 520 1
1.14 Smith-E et al; Isager-H, Impact of the 1987 revised AIDS case definition in Denmark: a follow-up study 2 years after its adoption, Scand-J-Infect-Dis, 1992; 24(3): 293 9
1.15 Hoover DR et al; Long-term survival without clinical AIDS after CD4+ cell counts fall below 200 x 106/l, Aids, 1995; Vol 9, no 2: 145 52
1.16 WHO; Workshop on Aids in Central Africa, Bangui22.-25. October 1985, Dokument WHO/CDS/AIDS/85.1, Genf, 1985
1.17 WHO, Global programme on AIDS; Provisional WHO clinical case definition for AIDS, Wkly-Epidemiol-Rec, 1986; March 7; no 10: 72 3
1.18 Cayla Joan et al; L’impact de la nouvelle definition de Sida à Barcelone, V. Int Conf Aids Montreal, 1989; Abstract T.A.O. 3
1.19 Pezzotti P et al; The effect of the 1993 European revision of the Aids case definition in Italy: implications for medelling the HIV epidemic, AIDS, 1997; 11: 95 9
2. Epidemiologie
2.0 Jaffe H.W. et al, Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome in the United States: The first 1.000 cases, J Infect Dis , 1983; Vol. 148, No 2: 339-45
2.1 Bericht des Aids-Zentrums im Robert Koch-Insitut über aktuelle epidemiologische Daten, Berlin, Quartalsbericht IV/96
2.2 Aids-Zentrum im Bundesgesundheitsamt, Bericht zur eppidemiologischen Situation in der BRD zum 31.12.1995, Berlin
2.3 Infektionsepidemiologische Forschung, Quartalsbericht, Robert Koch-Insitut, Berlin
2.4 Epidemiologisches Bulletin, Robert Koch-Insitut, Berlin
2.5 Todesursachen in Deutschland, Statistisches Bundesamt Wiesbaden, 1994
2.6 Meldepflichtige Krankheiten, Statistisches Bundesamt Wiesbaden
2.7 Diagnosen der Krankenhäuser, Statistisches Bundesamt Wiesbaden
2.8 Mitteilung des Statistischen Bundesamtes Wiesbaden
2.9 Ergebnisse der ANOMO-Studie 1988 bis 1994, Bundesministerium für Gesundheit, Bonn
2.10 Österreichische Aidsstatistik, Bericht zum 31.1.1997, Bundesministerium für Gesundheit, Wien
2.11 Kunz, Virusepidemiologische Information, 1987-97, Wien
2.12 Demographisches Jahrbuch Österreichs, Österr. Statistisches Zentralamt, Wien
2.13 European Centre for the epidemiological monitoring of Aids; HIV/AIDS Surveillance in Europe, Quarterly Report, St. Maurice, France
2.14 WHO, The current global situation of the HIV/Aids Pandemic, 3 January 1995
2.15 Bulletin Epidémiologique hebdomadaire, 10/1996, Ministère du Travail et des Affaires sociales, Paris
2.16 Solidarité santé, Juillet 1994, Ministère du Travail et des Affaires sociales, Paris
2.17 Cohorte Aquitaine: Rapport d’Activité Décembre 1995, Groupe d’Epidémiologie Clinique du SIDA en Aquitaine, Université de Bordeaux II
2.18 7. Österreichischer Aids-Kongress, 20.9.96, Wien
2.19 6. Deutscher Aids-Kongreß, 24.-26.10.96, München
2.20 Tomaso-H et al; Die Übertragung der HIV-Infektion, Wien-Klin-Wochenschr, 1995,107(3), 85 90
2.21 CDC; Update: AIDS – US, 1994, MMWR, 1995; 44, no 4: 64 7
2.22 CDC; First 500.000 Aids cases – US 1995, MMWR, 1995; 44, no 46: 849 53
2.23 UNAIDS and WHO, The HIV/AIDS situation in mid 1996, 1996, Genf
2.24 Chin J and Mann M, The global patterns and prevalence of AIDS and HIV infection, AIDS, 1988; 2, suppl 1: S 247 522
2.25 Dietz K., Seydel J., Back-Projection of German Aids data using information on dates of tests, Stat-med , 1991; 13: 1991 2008
2.26 Bundeszentrale für gesundheitliche Aufklärung, Aspekte der bundesweiten Aids-Präventionskampagne, Köln, 1996
2.27 Bundeszentrale für gesundheitliche Aufklärung, Aids im öffentlichen Bewußtsein der Bundesrepublik, Köln, 1995
2.28 Bericht über das Gesundheitswesen in Österreich im Jahr 1994, Bundesministerium für Gesundheit, Wien
2.29 Palitzsch et al, Prevalence of hepatitis B and C virus infection in Germany, Universität Regensburg
2.30 Jilg, Gründe für eine generelle Impfung gegen Hepatitis B, Deutsches Ärzteblatt, 1996; 93, Heft 47: B-2435 9
2.31 Szucs et al, Die Kostenstruktur der Hepatitis-B-Infektion, Fortschritte der Medizin, 1997; 4: 47 8
2.32 Dathe O. et al, Ist Anonymes Unverknüpftes Testen auf Anti-HIV an Gebärenden zur Prävalenzbestimmung sinnvoll?, 6. Deutscher Aids-Kongreß, 1996; P 112
2.33 CDC, HIV/AIDS Surveillance Report, US HIV and Aids cases reported through December 1996; 8(no 2)
2.34 Downs A et al, Reconstruction and prediction of the HIV/Aids epidemic among adults in the European Union and in the low prevalence countries of central and eastern Europe, Aids, 1997; 11: 649-62

3. Heterosexuelle Übertragung
3.1 European study group on heterosexual transmission of HIV, Vincenzi et al; Risk factors for male to female transmission of HIV, BMJ, 1989, Feb 18. 298(6671): 411 5
3.2 Padian et al; Male-to-female transmission of human immunodeficiency virus, JAMA, 1987, Aug 14. 258(6): 788 90
3.3 Italian study group on HIV heterosexual transmission, Lazzarin et al; Man-to-woman sexual transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus, Arch-Intern-Med, 1991, Dec; 151(12): 2411 6
3.4 Italian study group on HIV heterosexual transmission, Saracco et-al; Man-to-woman sexual transmission of HIV: longitudinal study of 343 steady partners of infected men, J-Acquir-Immune-Defic-Syndr, 1993, May; 6(5): 497 502
3.5 Siddiqui et al; No seroconversions among steady sex partners of methadone-maintained HIV-1-seropositive injecting drug users in New York City, AIDS, 1992, Dec; 6(12): 1529 33
3.6 Potterat et al; Lying to military physicians about risk factors for HIV infection, JAMA, 1987, 258:1727
3.7 Seidlin et al; Heterosexual transmission of HIV in a cohort of couples in New York City, Aids,1993, Vol 7, No 9: 1247 54
3.8 Padian et al; Female to male transmission of human immunoseficiency virus, Jama, 1991, Vol 266, September 25: 1664 7
3.9 European study group on heterosexual transmission of HIV, Vincenzi et al; The New England Journal of Medicine, 1994, Vol 331, No 6: 341 6
3.10 European study group on heterosexual transmission of HIV, Vincenzi et al; Comparison of female to male and male to female transmission of HIV in 563 stable couples, BMJ, 1992, Vol 304, March 28: 809 13
3.11 Italian study group on HIV heterosexual transmission, Nicolosi et al; Risk Factor for woman to man sexual transmission of the human immunideficiency virus, Journal of Aids, 1994, Vol 7 No 3: 296 300
3.12 Ronald-PJ et al; Heterosexual transmission of HIV in injecting drug users, BMJ, 1993, Nov 6; 307(6913):1184 5
3.13 Al-Nozha et al; Female to Male: An Inefficient Mode of Transmission Of HIV, J Acq Imm Def Syndr, 1990, Vol 3 no 2: 193
3.14 CDC; Heterosexually acquired AIDS-United States, 1993. MMWR, 1994; Mar 11; 43(9): 155 60
3.16 Guinan-ME; HIV heterosexual transmission and women, JAMA, 1992; Jul 22-29; 268(4): 520 1
3.17 Italian Study Group on HIV Heterosexual transmission, Musicco-M et al; Antiretroviral treatment of men infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 reduces the incidence of heterosexual transmission, Arch Intern Med; 1994; Vol 154, Sept 12: 1971 6
3.18 Daly-CC et al; Contraceptive methods and the transmission of HIV: implications for family planning, Genitourin-Med. 1994; Apr; 70(2): 110 7
3.19 Fischl; Evaluation of heterosexual partners. children and household contacts of adults with Aids, Jama, 1987; Feb 6, vol 257. no 5: 640 4
3.20 Smiley ML. et al; Transmission of human immunodeficiency virus to sexual partners of hemophiliacs, Am J Hematol, 1988; May 28(1): 27 32
3.21 Ragni M.V; HIV heterosexual transmission in hemophilia couples: lack of relation to T4 number, clinical diagnosis or duration of HIV exposure, J-acquir-immune-defi, 1989; Vol 2. no 6: 557 63
3.22 Gruppo Italiano Coagulopatie Congenite, Ghirardini-A et al; Testing practices and spread of HIV among sexual partners of HIV-positive haemophiliacs in Italy, AIDS. 1993; Apr; 7(4): 573 7
3.23 Petermann, Risk of human immunodeficiency virus tranmission from heterosexual adults with transfusion-associates infections, Jama, 1988; Jan 1, vol 259, no 1: 55 8
3.24 European Working Group on HIV Infection in Female Prostitutes; HIV infection in European female sex workers: epidemiological link with use of petroleum-based lubricants, AIDS, 1993; Mar; 7(3): 4.1 8
3.25 Potterat, Does Syphilis facilitate sexual acquisition of HIV?, Jama, 1987; July 24. vol 258. no 4: 473 4
3.26 Theill-O et al; Jugendliche und Aids: Sexualverhalten, Wissen und Einstellungen. Ergebnisse einer Befragung von Schülern in einer westdeutschen Großstadt, Monatsschr-Kinderheilkd,1993; 141(5): 421 6
3.27 O’Brien-TR et al; Heterosexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 from transfusion recipients to their sex partners, J-Acquir-Immune-Defic-Syndr,1994, Jul; 7(7):705 10
3.33 SEROCO Study Group, Carre-N et al; Effect of age and exposure group on the onset of AIDS in heterosexual and homosexual HIV-infected patients, AIDS, 1994; Jun; 8(6): 797 802
3.34 Brody-S; Lack of evidence for transmission of human immunodeficiency virus through vaginal intercourse, Arch-Sex-Behav, 1995; Aug; 24(4): 383 93
3.35 McDonald-AM et al; Assessment of self-report in HIV surveillance: a pilot study, Aust-J-Public-Health, 1994; Dec; 18(4): 429 32
3.36 Brody-S; Continued Lack of evidence for transmission of human immunodeficiency virus through vaginal intercourse, Arch-Sex-Behav, 1996; 25(3): 329 37
3.37 Bundeszentrale für gesundheitliche Aufklärung; Sexualtität und Kontrazeption aus der Sicht der Jugendlichen und ihrer Eltern – eine Wiederholungsbefragung, Köln, 1996
3.38 Nöstlinger, Wimmer-Puchinger; Geschützte Liebe- Jugendsexualität und Aids, 1994, Verlag Jugend und Volk, Wien
3.39 Nicolosi et al; The efficiency of male-to-female and female-to-male sexual transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus: a study of 730 stable couples, Epidemiology, 1994; Nov; 5(6): 570 5
3.40 Kröhn W. und Sydow-Kröhn A.; Der Latex-Handgriff – Eine Untersuchung zur Kondomakzeptanz bei Jugendlichen, Aktion Jugendschutz, Kiel, 1991
4. Afrika
4.1 Piot et al; Le Sida en Afrique, Manuel du praticien, WHO, 1993
4.2 Nzilambi et al; The prevalence of infection with HIV over a 10-year period in rural Zaire, The New England Journal of Midicine, 1988, Vol 318, No 5: 276 9
4.3 Binda-ki-Muaka-P et al; Malaria, anaemia, and HIV-1 transmission in central Africa, Lancet,1995, Nov 11; 346(8985):1294 5
4.4 Mulder; Two year HIV-1 associated mortality in a Ugandan rural population, Lancet, 1994, 343: 1021 3
4.5 Dondero; Excess deaths in Africa from HIV confirmed and quantified, Lancet, 1994, 343:  989
4.6 Nahmias AJ et al; Evidence for Human infection with an HTLV III/LAV-like Virus in Central Africa 1959. Lancet. 1986; May 31: 1279 80
4.8 Konotey-Ahulu; Aids in Africa: misinformation and disinformation, Lancet, 1987, July 25: 206 7
4.9 Kashala O. et al; Infection with HIV-1 and HTLV among leprosy patients and contacts: Correlation between HIV-1 cross-ractivity and antibodies to lipoarabinomannan, J Infect Dis , 1994; 169: 296 304
4.10 Lucas BS et al; Infection with HIV-1 and HTLV among leprosy patients in Zaire, J Infect Dis, 1995; 171: 502 3
4.11 Djomand-G et al; Idiopathic CD4+ T-lymphocyte depletion in a west African population, AIDS, 1994; Jun; 8(6): 843 7
4.12 Biggar RJ; The Aids Problem in Africa, Lancet, 1986; Jan 11: 79 83
4.13 Papadopulos-Eleopulos et al; Aids in Africa: Distinguishing fact and fiction, World J Microbiology & Biotechnology, 1995; 11: 135 43
4.14 Lindan et al; Predictors of Mortality among HIV-infected Women in Kigali, Rwanda, Ann Int Medicine, 1992; 116: 320 8
4.15 Colebunders et al; Evaluation of a clinical case definition of Aids in Africa, Lancet, 1987; Feb. 28: 492 4
4.16 Pallangyo et al; Clinical case definition of Aids in African adults, Lancet, 1987; Oct 24: 972
4.17 Widy-Wirsky, Evaluation of the WHO clinical case definition for Aids in Uganda, Jama, 1988; 260: 3286 9
4.18 Chin J; Public health surveillance of Aids and HIV infections, Bulletin of the WHO, 1990; 68(5): 529 36
4.19 Laga-M et al; Non-ulcerative sexually transmitted diseases as risk factors for HIV-1 transmission in women: results from a cohort study, AIDS., 1993; Jan; 7(1): 95 101
4.20 Wyatt; Le prix des injections inutiles dans les pays en développement, La Revue Presscrire, 1995; Tomme 15, No 152: 474 5
4.21 Wyatt; Unnecessary injections in developing countries the risk and costs, Int J of Risk & Safety in Medicine, 1993; 4: 167 76
4.22 Wyatt et al; Unnecessary injections and paralytic poliomyelitis in India, Trans Royal Soc Trop Med Hyg, 1992; 86: 546 9
4.23 Gopal Rao; Injections in the Indian subcontinent, BMJ, 1987; 295: 1281
4.24 Leroy V et al; Seroincidence of HIV-1 infection in African women of reproductive age: a prospective cohort study in Kigali, Rwanda, 1988-1992, Aids, 1994; 8: 983 6
4.25 Lepage et al; Perinatal transmission of HIV-1: lack of impact of maternal HIV infection on characteristics of livebirths and on neonatal mortality in Kigali, Ruanda, Aids, 1991; 5: 295 300
4.26 De Cock K. et al; Expanion of surveillance case definition for AIDS in resource-poor countries, Lancet, 1993; 342: 437 8
4.27 De Cock et al; Aids surveillance in Africa: a reappraisal of case definitions, BMJ, 1991; 303: 1185 8
4.28 Weniger et al; A simplified surveillance case definition of AIDS derived from empirical clinical data, Journal Of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes , 1992; 5: 1212 23
4.29 Gilks; What use is a clinical case definition for AIDS in Africa?, BMJ, 1991; 303: 1189 90
4.30 Plummer-FA et-al; Cofactors in male-female sexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1, J-Infect-Dis, 1991; 163:233 9
4.31 Roddy RE., Feldblum PJ; Analytical Mehodology in a Cohort Study of Cofactors for Sexual Transmission of HIV, J Infect Dis , 1991; 164: 1236 7
4.32 Biggar et al; Elisa HTLV retrovirus antbody reactivity associated with malaria and immune complexes in healthy Africans, Lancet, 1985, II: 520 3
4.33 Irova; Aids-resembling disease in a non-HIV-infected african born to an HIV-positive mother, Pediatric Hematology and Oncology, 1995; 12: 495 8
4.34 Strecker-W et al; Epidemiology and clinical manifestation of HIV infection in northern Zaire, Eur-J-Epidemiol, 1994; Feb; 10(1): 95 8
4.35 Van-de-Perre P; The epidemiology of HIV infection and AIDS in Africa, Trends-Microbiol, 1995; Jun; 3(6): 217 22
4.36 WHO, Water Supply and Sanitation Sextor Monitoring Report 1996, Genf, WHO/EOS/96.15
4.37 Terezinha T. et al, Serologic Validation of HIV-Infection in a Tropical Area, Journal Of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 1993; 6: 319-22

5. Thailand
5.1 Aids: the third wave (Editorial), Lancet, 1994; Jan 22: 1868
5.2 Mastro-TD et al; Probability of female-to-male transmission of HIV-1 in Thailand, Lancet, 1994; Jan 22; 343(8891): 204 7
5.3 Sittitrai-W et al; Levels of HIV risk behaviour and AIDS knowledge in Thai men having sex with men, AIDS-Care, 1993; 5(3): 261 71
5.4 Nelson-KE; et al; Changes in sexual behavior and a decline in HIV infection among young men in Thailand, N-Engl-J-Med, 1996, Aug 1; 335(5): 297 303
5.5 Cohen-J; The epidemic in Thailand [news], Science,1994, Dec 9; 266(5191):1647
5.6 Mundee-Y et al; Infectious disease markers in blood donors in northern Thailand, Transfusion, 1995, Mar;  35(3): 264 7
5.7 Kunanusont-C et al; HIV-1 subtypes and male-to-female transmission in Thailand, Lancet,1995, Apr 29; 345(8957): 1078 83
5.8 Yu-XF; Wang-Z et al; Phenotypic and genotypic characteristics of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 from patients with AIDS in northern Thailand, J-Virol,1995; 69(8): 4649 55
5.9 Sittitrai-W et al; A survey of Thai sexual behaviour and risk of HIV infection, Int-J-STD-AIDS, 1994, Sep-Oct; 5(5): 377 8
5.10 Kalish-ML et al; Early HIV type 1 strains in Thailand were not responsible for the current epidemic., AIDS-Res-Hum-Retroviruses, 1994, Nov; 10(11): 1573 5
5.11 Beyrer-C et al; Same-sex behavior, sexually transmitted diseases and HIV risks among young northern Thai men,  AIDS, 1995, Feb; 9(2): 171 6
5.12 Kunawararak-P; The epidemiology of HIV and syphilis among male commercial sex workers in northern Thailand, AIDS,1995,May; 9(5): 517 21
5.13 Wasi-C et al; Determination of HIV-1 subtypes in injecting drug users in Bangkok, Thailand, AIDS, 1995, Aug; 9(8): 843 9
5.14 Mason-CJ; Declining prevalence of HIV-1 infection in young Thai men,  AIDS, 1995, Sep; 9(9):1061 5
5.15 Weniger-BG; Brown-T; The march of AIDS through Asia, N-Engl-J-Med, 1996; Aug 1; 335(5): 343 5
5.16 Müller O; Aids in Thailand – Stand der Epidemie in einem asiatischen Land mit hoher Inzidenz der HIV-Infektion, Aids–Forschung, 1993; Nov, (11): 583 92
5.17 Rojanapithayakorn W; Effective Aids Control in Thailand, J Thai Med Soc STD , 1986; Vol 3, No 1: 30 1
5.18 Wangroongsarb Y. et al; Prevalence of HTLV-III/LAV Antibody in Selected Populations in Thailand, J Thai Med Soc STD, 1986; vol 3, No 1: 11
5.19 Kleiber; Aids, Sex und Tourismus: Ergebnisse einer Befragung deutscher Urlauber und Sextouristen, Bundesministerium für Gesundheit, Bonn, 1995
5.20 Nopkesorn et al; HIV Prevalence and Sexual Behaviors among Thai Men Aged 21 in Northern Thailand, Thai Red Cross Society, 1991, Research Report No 3
5.21 Des Jarlais et al; Aids Risk Reduction and Reduced HIV Seroconversion among Injection Drug Useres in Bangkok, Am-j-public-health , 1994; Vol 84, No 3: 452 5
5.22 Soto-Ramirez-LE et al; HIV-1 Langerhans’ cell tropism associated with heterosexual transmission of HIV, Science, 1996; Mar 1; 271(5253): 1291 3
5.23 Cohen; Differences in HIV Strains May Underlie Disease Patterns, Science , 1995; 270: 30 1
5.24 Gräning B.; Prostitutionstourismus nach Thailand, Überseemuseum Bremen, 1988
6. HIV-negative Aidskranke
6.1 WHO; Global Programme on Aids, Report of a scientific meeting on unexplained severe immunodeficiency without evidence of HIV infection, 1992, Geneva, GPA/RES/93.3
6.2 Fernandez-Cruz et al; Idiopathic CD4+ T-Lymphocytopenia in an asymptomatic HIV-seronegative woman after exposure to HIV, N Engl J Med , 1996; 334, no 18: 1202 3
6.3 Global Programme on Aids; Unexplained severe immunisuppression without evidence of HIV infection, Weekly Epid Record, 1992; No 42, 16 October: 309 11
6.4 Duncan-RA et al; Idiopathic CD4+ T-lymphocytopenia–four patients with opportunistic infections and no evidence of HIV infection, N-Engl-J-Med, 1993, Feb 11; 328(6): 393 8
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6.6 Ho-DD et al; Idiopathic CD4+ T-lymphocytopenia–immunodeficiency without evidence of HIV infection, N-Engl-J-Med, 1993, Feb 11; 328(6): 380 5
6.7 Smith KD et al; Unexplained opportunistic infections and CD4+ T-Lymphocytopenia without HIV infection – An Investigation of Cases in the US, N Engl J Med, 1993; Febr 11, No 6: 373 9
6.8 CDC; Unexplained CD4+ T-lymphocyte depletion in persons without evident HIV infection–United States, MMWR-Morb-Mortal-Wkly-Rep, 1992, Jul 31; 41(30): 541 5
6.9 CDC; Update: CD4+ T-lymphocytopenia in persons without evident HIV infection–United States, MMWR-Morb-Mortal-Wkly-Rep, 1992, Aug 7; 41(31): 578 9
6.10 CDC, Unexplained CD4+ T-lymphocyte depletion, persons without evident HIV infection., JAMA, 1992, Sep 9; 268(10): 1254 5
6.11 CDC; Update: CD4+ T-lymphocytopenia in persons without evident HIV infection–United States., JAMA, 1992, Sep 9; 268(10): 1252
6.12 Castro-A et al; Kaposi’s sarcoma and disseminated tuberculosis in HIV-negative individual, Lancet, 1992, Apr 4; 339(8797): 868
6.13 Daus et al; Reduced CD4+ count, infections and immune thrombocytopenia without HIV infection, Lancet, 1989, 2: 559 60
6.14 Moore-JP; Ho-DD; HIV-negative AIDS [news], Lancet,1992, Aug 22; 340(8817): 475
6.15 Laurence-J et al; Acquired immunodeficiency without evidence of infection with human immunodeficiency virus types 1 and 2, Lancet,1992, Aug 1; 340(8814): 273 4
6.16 Kaczmarski-RS et al; CD4+ lymphocytopenia due to common variable immunodeficiency mimicking AIDS, J-Clin-Pathol, 1994, Apr; 47(4): 364 6
6.17 Burg-S et al; Idiopathische CD4-Lymphozytopenie mit letaler Salmonella-typhimurium-Sepsis, Dtsch-Med-Wochenschr, 1994, Jul 8; 119(27): 956 8
6.18 McNulty-A et al; Acquired immunodeficiency without evidence of HIV infection: national retrospective survey , BMJ, 1994, Mar 26; 308(6932): 825 6
6.19 Schinazi-RF, Del-Bene-VE; Non-HIV-1 CD4+ lymphocyte depletion in a patient with an acquired immunodeficiency syndrome of unknown etiology , AIDS,1993,Feb; 7(2): 284 5
6.25 Mientjes-GH et al; Frequent injecting impairs lymphocyte reactivity in HIV-positive and HIV-negative drug users, AIDS, 1991, Jan; 5(1): 35 41
6.26 Friedman-Kien-AE et al; Kaposi’s sarcoma in HIV-negative homosexual men, Lancet; 1990, Jan 20:168 9
7. Sonstiges
7.1 Jäger; Aids und HIV-Infektionen: Diagnostik, Klinik, Behandlung, 1988 mit halbjährlicher Aktualisierung, Landsberg
7.2 WHO; Programme mondial de lutte contre le Sida, Bilan 1994
7.4 WHO; Aids, Images of the epidemic, 1994
7.5 Österreichische Ärztezeitung, Wien, 1989-1994
7.6 Bundesministerium für Gesundheit und Bundesministerium für Unterricht, Materialien zum Thema Aids, 1993, Heft 4
7.7 Spectrum STD & Aids, Wien
7.9 WHO; Le Point, Le Bulletin du Programme mondial de Lutte contre le Sida de l’OMS, Genf
7.10 Der Spiegel
7.11 Gellert et al; Disclosure of Aids in Celebrities, The New England Journal of Medicine, 1992, 327, 19; 1389
7.12 Austria Presse Agentur
7.13 Médecine Tropicale, M.Gentilini, Flammarion Paris, 1993
7.14 Schrott; Die Chronik der Medizin, Chronik Verlag Dortmund, 1993
7.15 Chang; Identification of herpes virus-like DNA sequences in Aids-associated Kaposi’s sarcoma, Science, 1994, 266: 1865 9
7.16 Duden, Das große Wörterbuch der deutschen Sprache, 1993
7.17 Elswood-BF, Stricker-RB; Polio vaccines and the origin of AIDS, Med-Hypotheses, 1994, Jun; 42(6): 347 54
7.18 Levy-JA; Long-term survivors of HIV infection, Hosp-Pract-Off-Ed, 1994;  Oct 15; 29(10): 41 52
7.19 Baltimore; Lessons from people with nonprogressive HIV infection, N Engl J Med , 1995; vol 332, no 4: 259 60
7.20 Pantaleo; Studies in subjects with long-term nonprogressive HIV infection, N Engl J Med , 1995; vol 332 no 4: 209 15
7.21 Bucquet; Cohorte francaise multicentrique d’adultes infectes par le VIH, Description et evolution apres 4 ans de suivi, Presse-med , 1994; 23, no 27: 1247 51
7.22 Rutherford et al; Course of HIV-1 infection in a cohort of homosexual and bisexual men: an 11 year follow up study, BMJ, 1990; 301: 1183 7
7.23 Groupe international de travail sur la transmission mère-enfant du VIH, Estimation du taux de transmission du VIH de la mère à l’enfant, Cahiers Santé, 1994; 4: 73 86
7.24 Shafer R. and Edlin B; Tuberculosis in Patients infected with HIV: Perspective on the Past Decade, Clinical Infectious Diseases, 1996; 22: 683 704
7.25 Artenstein-AW et al; Multiple introductions of HIV-1 subtype E into the western hemisphere,  Lancet, 1995; Nov 4; 346(8984): 1197 8
7.26 Robert Koch Institut, Auch HIV Subtyp E wird nicht durch Küsse ubertragen, Z-Ärztl-Fortbild-Jena, 1996; Feb; 90(1): 49
7.27 Artenstein-AW; Transmission of HIV-1 subtype E in the United States, JAMA, 1996; Jul 10, 276(2): 99 100
7.28 Beral et al; Kaposi’s sarcoma among persons with AIDS: a sexually transmitted infection?, Lancet, 1990; 335: 123 8
7.29 Cohen; Is a New Virus the Cause of KS?, Science, 1994; 266: 1803 4
7.30 Burke; Measurement of the false positive rate in a screening program for human immunodeficiency virus infections, NEJM,1988, 319: 961 4
7.31 Dock-NL et al; Human immunodeficiency virus infection and indeterminate western blot patterns. Prospective studies in a low prevalence population, Arch-Intern-Med, 1991; Mar; 151(3): 525 30
7.32 Farzadegan H et al; Loss of HIV-1 antibodies with evidence of viral infection in asymptomatic homosexual men – A report from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, Ann Int Medicine, 1988; vol 108, no 6: 785 90
7.33 Rodman-TC et al; Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) Tat-reactive antibodies present in normal HIV-negative sera and depleted in HIV-positive sera. Identification of the epitope, J-Exp-Med, 1992; May 1; 175(5): 1247 53
7.34 Bryson Y. et al; Clearance of HIV infection in a perinatally infected infant, The New England Journal of Medicine, 1995, March 30; 833 8
7.35 Roques P. et al; Clearance of HIV infection in 12 perinatally infected children: clinical, virological and immunological data, AIDS, 1995, Vol 9, No 12: F 19 26
7.36 Newell M-L. et al; Detection of virus in vertically exposed HIV-antibody-negative children, The Lancet, 1996, January 27, Vol 347: 213 5
7.37 McIntosh K. and Burchett S; Clearance of HIV- lessons from newborns, The New England Journal of Medicine, 1995, March 30, Vol 332, No 13: 883 4
7.38 Nielsen-C et al; Prevalence of HIV infection in seronegative high-risk individuals examined by virus isolation and PCR, J-Acquir-Immune-Defic-Syndr, 1991, 4(11):1107 11
7.39 Bakshi-SS et al; Repeatedly positive human immunodeficiency virus type 1 DNA polymerase chain reaction in human immunodeficiency virus-exposed seroreverting infants, Pediatr-Infect-Dis-J, 1995; Aug; 14(8): 658 62
7.40 Moore JD et al, HTLV-III Seropositivity in 1971-72 parenteral drug abusers – a case of false positives or evidence of viral exposure?, N Engl J Med , 1986; 314: 1387-8
Lange-WR et al; Followup study of possible HIV seropositivity among abusers of parenteral drugs in 1971-72, Public-Health-Rep, 1991; Jul-Aug; 106(4): 451 5
7.41 Palumbo-P et al; PCR analysis of HIV-seronegative, heterosexual partners of HIV-infected individuals., J-Acquir-Immune-Defic-Syndr-Hum-Retrovirol, 1995; Dec 1; 10(4): 436 40
7.42 Ascher DP; Determination of the etiology of seroreversals in HIV testing by antibody fingerprinting, Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 1993; 6: 241 4
7.43 Celum C et al; Indeterminate HIV-1 Western Blots: Seroconversion Risk, Specificity of Supplemental Tests, an an Algorithm for Evaluation, J Infect Dis , 1991; 164: 656 64
7.44 Serraino-D et al; HIV transmission and Kaposi’s sarcoma among European women, AIDS, 1995; Aug; 9(8): 971 3
7.45 Albrecht-H et al; Kaposi’s sarcoma in HIV infected women in Germany: more evidence for sexual transmission. A report of 10 cases and review of the literature, Genitourin Med, 1994; 70: 394 8
7.46 Caldwell-JC; Caldwell-P; The African AIDS epidemic, Sci-Am, 1996; Mar; 274(3): 40 46
7.47 Celum C. et al; Risk Factors for Repeatedly reaktive HIV-1 EIA and indeterminate Western Blots, 1994,  Arch Intern Med; Vol 154, May 23: 1129 37
7.48 Isotretinoin: Verfälschung von HIV-1-Antkörpertest?, Deutsche Apotheker Zeitung, 1994; 15: 62
7.49 Ayisi NK and Aidoo M; HIV-1 and HIV-2 indeterminate Western Blot patterns, West African J Med, 1994; Vol 13, No 3: 164 7
7.50 Mac Kenzie WR. et al; Multiple false-positive serologic tests for HIV, HTLV-1 and Hepatitis C following influenza vaccination, JAMA, 1992; 268, no 8: 1015 7
7.51 Louria DB. et al; An unusual case of false-positive serology for the HIV: report from the hterosexual HIV transmission study, Clinical Infectious Diseases , 1992; 15: 707 9
7.52 Lee DA. et al; HIV false positive after hepatitis B vaccination, Lancet , 1992; 339: 1060
7.53 Jindal R; False positive tests for HIV in a woman with Lupus and renal failure, N Engl J Med , 1993; 328, no 17: 1281 2
7.54 Le Monde, Paris: 18 und 20. September 1991; 13 Juli 1994
7.55 Luc Montagnier; Des Virus et des Hommes, 1994, Editions Odile Jacob, Paris (Deutsche Übersetztung: Von Viren und Menschen, Rowohlt, 1997)
7.56 Migali-E et al; HIV-1: absence of infection in subjects with indeterminate western blot, Allergol-Immunopathol-Madr, 1993, Mar-Apr; 21(2): 61 5
7.57 Green G;  Attitudes towards people with HIV: are they as stigmatizing as people with HIV perceive them to be?, Soc-Sci-Med, 1995; vol 41, no 4: 557 69
7.58 Koch M. et al; Blutspender als Sentinelpopulation für sexuell übertragbare Krankheiten – Ergebnisse einer soziodemographischen Untersuchung und Befragung zum Sexualverhalten, Gesundheitswesen, 1993; 55: 504 13
7.59 Verdrager-J; Hypotheses sur l’origine et l’emergence du VIH, Bull-Soc-Pathol-Exot, 1995, 88(1): 54 60
7.60 Laconte und Tahi; “Themenabend: Aids, die Zweifel”, Arte, gesendet am 14.3.96
7.61 Schwartz et al; Risk of HIV transmission by anti-HIV-negative blood components in Germany and Austria, Ann Hematol, 1995, 70: 209 13
7.62 Aids-Bekämpfung in Deutschland, Bundesministerium für Gesundheit, Bonn, 1996
7.63 Die Zeit, Hamburg
7.64 Der Standard, Wien
7.65 Mitteilung der Deutschen Latex Forschung, Düsseldorf
7.66 Corbitt; HIV Infection in Manchester, 1959, 1990; 336: 51
7.67 Froland et al; HIV-1 infection in Norwegian family before 1970, Lancet, 1988; June 11 (I): 1344 5
7.68 McClure, Origin of HIV, BMJ, 1989; vol 298, 13 May: 1267-8
7.69 Nelson JA et al, HIV detected in bowel epithelium from patients with gastrointestinal symptoms, Lancet, 1988; Febr. 6: 259-62

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A doctor’s summary of the AIDS deceptions

Posted by Henry Bauer on 2008/09/26

Christian Fiala, MD, PhD, is an Austrian specialist in obstetrics and gynaecology who has worked on AIDS in Uganda and Thailand. He has published a fine concise piece in English in a Dutch newspaper. Here are just a few highlights:
(The above link omits Fiala’s references, which are inserted below)

“Many people realised long ago that HIV/AIDS is not a threat to the heterosexual population in Europe or North America. In contrast to the numerous campaigns during the last two decades, intended to make us believe that ‘everyone is at risk’. . .

instead of the announced deadly epidemic of historic proportions [in Uganda] we find an explosive annual population growth rate of 3.4 percent, which means the country is doubling its population in 21 years. . . .

the basic assumption in the HIV/AIDS paradigm — that a positive HIV test leads to AIDS and certain premature death — is wrong, as proven by the example of Uganda. . . . “

Fiala takes special note of the stunning willingness of HIV/AIDS researchers to react vehemently against any dispassionate and factual writings about HIV/AIDS without revealing their own conflicts of interest:
“What kind of quality of scientific judgement can we expect from experts who defend a widely-held belief that guarantees their income and who are unable to see an obvious conflict of interest?”

“Now that the obvious reality has finally been admitted, we can be relieved that the AIDS epidemic is not the killer we were made believe. But how can we prevent a similar deception in the future? One possible strategy is to avoid just believing what scientists tell us, and instead follow Albert Einstein’s advice: ‘The important thing is not to stop questioning’.”

No doubt the HIV/AIDS groupies and defenders of the faith included Fiala long ago among the “denialists”. But Fiala came to his views because of his experience as a medical student and later doctor, as recounted in his book, “Lieben wir gefährlich? Ein Arzt auf der Suche nach den Fakten und  Hintergründen von Aids [sic]” (Do we love dangerously? A doctor in search of the facts and background of AIDS), Deuticke Verlag, Vienna, 1997.

I was finally able to read this book via Interlibrary Loan after several abortive attempts to locate a copy to buy, and plan to write a review some time. The book does not deny that HIV exists or that it can cause AIDS; however, it takes the view that virtually the only way to spread this deadly illness is via anal intercourse or infected needles.

Further reading:
Update on Uganda — An analysis of the predictions and assumptions about the former epicenter of the AIDS epidemic. Implications for other African countries’

‘Aids in Africa: a call for sense, not hysteria’

UNAIDS press release (Geneva, 20 November 2007)
“Global HIV prevalence has levelled off; AIDS is among the leading causes of death globally and remains the primary cause of death in Africa Improvements in surveillance increase understanding of the epidemic, resulting in substantial revisions to estimates”
This press release contains the following statement: “The current estimate of 33.2 million [30.6 – 36.1 million] people living with HIV replaces the 2006 estimate of 39.5 million [34.1 – 47.1 million].”

“U.N. to Cut Estimate of AIDS Epidemic Population with Virus Overstated by Millions”
An article in The Washington Post on 20 November 2007 about the revision of data by UNAIDS. Here is a relevant comment from this report:
“Some researchers, however, contend that persistent overestimates in the widely quoted U.N. reports have long skewed funding decisions and obscured potential lessons about how to slow the spread of HIV. Critics have also said that U.N. officials overstated the extent of the epidemic to help gather political and financial support for combating AIDS.”

The AIDS Pandemic: The Collision of Epidemiology with Political Correctness
A book by Dr. James Chin, the former head epidemiologist at WHO

“Threat of world Aids pandemic among heterosexuals is over, report admits”
An article in The Independent by Jeremy Laurance, Sunday, 8 June 2008

“The writing is on the wall for UNAIDS”
by Roger England in BMJ 2008;336:1072 (10 May),

Lieben wir gefährlich? Ein Arzt auf der Suche nach den Fakten und Hintergründen von Aids (Do we love dangerously?)
Christian Fiala, ein Buch erschienen im Deuticke Verlag Wien, 1997

“Why I Quit HIV”
An article by Rebecca V. Culshaw explaining why she stopped developing mathematical models about the HIV/Aids epidemic

Science Sold Out: Does HIV Really Cause AIDS?
A book by Rebecca V. Culshaw on the problems with the HIV/AIDS theory and the alleged epidemic

The citation from the journal of the German Medical Council is from:
“Kumulative Verwirrung” (Collective confusion), Deutsches Ärzteblatt, 1989, 86, Heft 17, B 853/C 749

Reference for the citation of drinking water:

The data on Uganda come from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics:
“The high rate of population growth is mainly due to the persistently high fertility levels (about seven children per woman) that have been observed for the past four decades. The decline in mortality reflected by a decline in Infant and Childhood Mortality Rates as revealed by the Uganda Demographic and Health Surveys (UDHS) of 1995 and 2000-2001, have also contributed to the high population growth rate.” (2002 Population Census,

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Abstinence-based HIV programs in Africa may put married women at risk

Posted by Henry Bauer on 2008/09/25

Is this a non sequitur? Or something even worse?

My Google Alert for “HIV” periodically offers me head-spinning puzzlers like this one. Naturally I read it eagerly, searching for enlightenment.

The stage is set with the tale of a young virgin who married a 10-years-older man. [Hardly need to read further, does one!?]

After he died, she discovered that she and their 4 children were all “HIV-positive”. [I knew it!]

“There is no way to know exactly when he contracted the AIDS virus, but he did”, we’re told — but since he was never tested, the only evidence is circumstantial.

Now there’s the explanation I was looking for:

“Uganda has been touted as Africa’s most successful country in reducing HIV infection rates, both by its government, which is eager to gain international approval, and by the Bush administration, which funds the controversial abstinence-based ‘ABC’ campaign that now dominates HIV prevention efforts in Uganda and much of Africa. But since abstinence advice is considered irrelevant for married women [for good and sufficient reason, one must surely admit], and married couples are the least likely to use condoms to prevent infection [as some Africans point out, they do like to have children], experts [not named, as usual — we can or must take their expertise on trust] now consider married women among the most at-risk Ugandans for contracting HIV, a factor that could be contributing to Uganda’s current failure to curb rates of new infections.”

That married women are most at risk of testing HIV-positive is a very old story [To avoid HIV infection, don’t get married — 18 November 2007;  HIV demographics further confirmed — 26 February 2008]  Among the reasons are that married women tend to be in the age range where people are most likely to test positive (increasingly from adolescence into young middle age) and that they are likely to bear children: pregnancy is one reason for testing HIV-positive, and some women remain HIV-positive thereafter, at least in South Africa  [HIV demographics are predictable . . . , 27 August 2008].

But the HIV/AIDS Establishment and its experts are impervious to the lessons of actual data, so they say things like — from “Dr. David Serwadda, director of the Institute of Public Health at Makerere University in Kampala”: “Increasingly, people assume that marriage is a safe institution. But there are also extramarital relationships. Married women don’t see why they are at risk, yet they are very much at risk . . .  You could have sex for the first time in marriage, but after that, men are very likely to go outside of marriage and sleep with other women.”
It’s not clear whether Serwadda was extrapolating from his own behavior in so indicting by innuendo a huge proportion of African husbands as promiscuous, adulterous, and irresponsible. But evidently he’s an expert, so he must know what he’s talking about.

“The number of ‘discordant’ couples, or those with one person testing positive and one negative, has been growing, and is an area of concern for many who work to fight HIV”.
Do people think about what they write on these matters, I wonder quite often. As more and more discordant couples are discovered, should one not consider this as possible evidence that “HIV-positive” status may not be transmissible at all? Particularly as we’re talking about Africa, where HIV/AIDS has spread like wildfire — reflecting, according to James Chin, former epidemiologist at the World Health Organization, concurrent multiple sexual partnerships with continually changing partners among 20-40% of adult sub-Saharan Africans. How do those individuals remain uninfected, in those discordant couples? Does only the “HIV-positive” partner have sex, and only outside marriage, while the HIV-negative one is celibate?

“Couples are now encouraged to come for counseling about HIV and to test together. Yet many still do not disclose test results to their spouse for fear of reprisal.”
Do we know that, having heard it from those who are afraid to tell their spouses, or is this just the usual shibboleth that requires no supporting evidence, because everyone knows it to be the case, because everyone knows that women are not empowered, especially not in sub-Saharan Africa?
“’We get ladies who tell us, frankly, I can’t reveal my status [to my new husband]. I fear, who will feed me?’ according to Grace Oling, assistant medical coordinator at TASO in Mulago”.
How many such ladies? Sufficient to extrapolate to the population as a whole?

“Some widowed women, who appear healthy thanks to life-saving anti-retroviral drugs”
Another shibboleth: if someone is HIV-positive and healthy, that can only be the result of antiretroviral drugs?! What about all the “elite controllers” and “long-term non-progressors”?

“Compounding the problem is the fact that few people actually know their HIV status in Uganda . . . only about 12 percent of the population has actually been tested” . . .
which has never prevented UNAIDS and WHO from disseminating purported numbers for the country as a whole. Thus
“Overall, Uganda’s HIV rates have decreased since the peak of the epidemic in the early 1990s, when they soared as high as 30 percent” —
a figure that was based on tests at pre-natal clinics, where women always test positive more often than non-pregnant women do. The sharply reduced estimates from UNAIDS a few years ago were revised for precisely this reason.

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Posted by Henry Bauer on 2007/12/04

Amid all the bad news and dire warnings, occasionally real successes have been reported in bringing down the rate of HIV infection in some regions. For example, in Uganda, the “highest recorded prevalence was 18.5% in 1992, and 30.5% among pregnant women . . . . These have both fallen to 6.4%” ten years later. The success was owing to “significant behaviour change, especially among the young generation, by delaying sex, reducing the number of sexual partners, using condoms” (“Uganda: Rising HIV infection–where did we lose it?”, New Vision (Kampala), 12 December 2006) –though these gains are now threatened because “married couples and rich women were found to be at high risk” and because of a high birth-rate, as remarked in earlier posts (18 November, TO AVOID HIV, DON’T GET MARRIED; 27 November, HIV DOUBLETHINK).

Uganda’s success has become widely known and commented on: “Uganda has won praise for its vigorous campaign against HIV/AIDS. It has helped to reduce the prevalence of the virus–which reached 30% in the 1990s–to single-digit figures” (BBC News, 17 August 2007).

Other African nations, too, have had some striking successes, even politically and economically fraught Zimbabwe: “the number of adults infected with the virus that causes AIDS has fallen to 15.6 percent this year compared with 18.1 percent in 2005 and 24.6 percent in 2003 . . . [according to] Health Minister David Parirenyatwa following a survey carried out by the United Nations Population Fund, Zimbabwe’s National AIDS Council, and the country’s Ministry of Health” (Voice of America News, 31 October 2007). Though some skepticism was expressed about the validity of these numbers because of the flight of many people from Zimbabwe, “The new statistics have however been validated by some non-governmental organisations including the Centre for Disease Control and United Nations agencies, including the World Health Organisation” (Henry Makiwa, SW Radio Africa [London], 1 November 2007). “Roeland Monasch, Deputy Representative of the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) . . . [confirmed that the] rate has steadily decreased from 25.7 percent in 2002 to 21.3 percent in 2004, dropping to 17.7 in 2006” (UN Integrated Regional Information Networks, 2 November 2007). Nevertheless, “An estimated 1 320 739 people are living with HIV and AIDS, 651 402 of them women and 132 938 being children under 14 years of age who probably contracted the virus at birth” (Peter Matambanadzo, “Country leads SADC in reducing HIV prevalence, incidence”, The Herald (Harare), 22 November 2007).

Kenya, too, has had notable success; indeed, “Kenya now leads in global war on AIDS, says UN” (Kevin J Kelley, The East African, 3 December 2007):
” Kenya is replacing Uganda as the global model of a country waging a successful campaign against the AIDS epidemic, a new UN report says. . . . the infection rate for HIV . . . [fell] from about 14 per cent in the mid-1990s to 5 per cent this year. . . . Kenya [is] among the six countries in the world that together account for 70 per cent of the global decline in HIV prevalence during the past year.”

* * * * * *

So in Uganda, during a decade the infection rate decreased by about 1.2% per year (but at twice that rate among pregnant women), and between 2002 and 2006 at 1.6% per year. In Kenya the decrease was about 1% per year for a decade. In Zimbabwe, the decline from 2002 to 2006 was at a rate of about 1.6% per year.

Innumerable stories in the media carried these good tidings. But was anyone who reported them thinking about these numbers? Here’s the problem. According to HIV/AIDS theory, HIV infection is permanent; once infected, you never get rid of the virus; once HIV-positive, you never become negative. Therefore, the only way that prevalence of HIV can decrease is if more infected people die than become newly infected. For the HIV infection rate to drop by 1%, then 1% of the population must die (plus a number equal to the count of newly infected people). Therefore the death rate in Kenya during the past decade must have been at least 1% of the population in excess of whatever the historically “normal” rate had been, in Uganda 1.2% (or more) in excess, and in Zimbabwe 1.6% in excess.

In Zimbabwe the overall, total death rate has held roughly steady at 2.1-2.5% per year during the last decade, of which–about two thirds of all deaths–must have been attributable to HIV. Therefore the historically “normal” rate would have been 2.1-2.5 minus 1.6, that is to say 0.5-0.9%.

For comparison, the death rate in Sweden has been about 1% during the last decades, for Japan about 0.9%, for the United States 0.8%. Obviously, these statistics mean that before the AIDS epidemic hit, Zimbabweans had a significantly longer life expectancy than did Swedes, Japanese, or Americans.

Not as long as Ugandans, though. In Uganda, the overall death rate has been about 1.3%, according to the CIA Fact Book. Since HIV-infected Ugandans have been dying at the rate of 1.2%, just about all the deaths during this period of decreasing prevalence of HIV were attributable to HIV. If it weren’t for that frightful epidemic, then, Ugandans would hardly have been dying at all, apparently they could live virtually for ever. So too in Kenya, with its overall death rate of 1.1% of which at least 1% was supposedly attributable to HIV.

Rian Malan pointed out, years ago already, that claims of HIV/AIDS deaths far exceeded anything observable on or under the ground, that they had not affected historical death rates, and that they were based not on observation but on bogus numbers generated by computers for UNAIDS and the World Health Organization (“AIDS in Africa: In search of the truth”, Rolling Stone Magazine, 22 November 2001; “Africa isn’t dying of AIDS”, The Spectator [London], 14 December 2003).

Words actually fail me, what to say about the institutions that continue to promulgate these bogus numbers, or about the media that parrot them. Above all, I can’t imagine what goes on with the presumably trained professionals who generate these numbers in the first place. Do they not think at all about what they are doing?

I suppose this lack of standing back to think about whether the numbers make sense goes naturally with generating ranges of uncertainty that are less for Third-World countries than for those in the First World (29 November, HIV/AIDS: NUMBERS THAT DON’T ADD UP). Or with the pervasive idiocy of the meaningless “significant” figures as in “estimated 1 320 739 . . . 651 402 of them women and 132 938 being children” (2 December, MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL LIES ABOUT HIV/AIDS).

Not that general statements are necessarily more sensible than these exquisitely detailed ones. The global concern has been almost hysterical over these last couple of decades, about Africans dying from AIDS and the need for antiretroviral treatment that is only lately beginning to be met. Yet for all this time, in virtual absence of treatment against the raging epidemic, Africa’s population has been growing at a few percent per year. This is beginning to pose a tangible threat to already overburdened economies: “Recent reports from Uganda, Kenya and Burkina Faso show that concern over rapid population growth is once again becoming a matter of public concern”; even in Burkina Faso “which is among the very poorest in the world” (“Fresh population concerns in Africa, 29 October 2007,

The world’s official left hands are telling us that Africa is being decimated by a fatal, incurable disease that in some countries like Botswana has infected a third of the population. The world’s official right hands are wondering how to cope with the population explosion in Africa.

When will acknowledgment of reality, or just plain common sense, put an end to this nonsense? Instead of wasting money on antiretroviral drugs, will we ever address the need for food, clean water, and vitamins? Will officialdom ever concede that “HIV tests” don’t detect HIV?

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