HIV/AIDS Skepticism

Pointing to evidence that HIV is not the necessary and sufficient cause of AIDS

Posts Tagged ‘Rwanda’


Posted by Henry Bauer on 2008/02/26

The rates at which people in the United States test HIV-positive have remained at about the same level, and have remained distributed geographically in the same manner, for two decades. The rates also vary with age, sex, and race in the same manner in all social groups. Those demographics are characteristic of something endemic, not of something contagious that causes epidemics; thus “HIV” is not something that’s sexually transmitted (see also WHAT “HIV” IS NOT: IT’S NOT SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED, 6 January 2008).

That demographics-based argument, detailed in The Origins, Persistence and Failings of HIV/AIDS Theory (McFarland 2007), is strongly confirmed by finding similar demographic characteristics in Africa as in the United States.


Consider how testing HIV-positive varies with age and sex:


Sexually transmitted diseases tend to strike adolescents and young adults more than others; by contrast, rates of HIV-positive are highest in newborns and in middle-aged people.

Resistance to infections and illnesses is greatest among adults in the prime and middle years of life; old people are at particular risk for flu, pneumonia, etc. The very opposite applies with HIV: the risk of testing HIV-positive is greatest in middle age.

The above diagram describes general trends. As noted in the source (The Origins, Persistence and Failings of HIV/AIDS Theory, there are some variations: “The only major variation between groups is in the precise ‘middle’ age at which F(HIV) peaks, anywhere from 30s to 50s; and that precise age is not always the same for males and females. . . . There are also hints . . . that the peak ages and the male-to-female ratios may be somewhat different in the various racial categories” (pp. 26-7); “black women test positive relatively frequently under some sort of not-necessarily-serious physiological stress, such as pregnancy or childbirth” (p. 247).

Those very same trends can be seen in the Demographic and Health Survey for Rwanda (2005 edition, published July 2006; available at



The data from the United States contained hints that black women are particularly prone to test HIV-positive; the Rwanda data confirm that strongly—women there test HIV-positive more often than men up to age 40, whereas in the United States women test positive more often than men only up to the later teens.

Then there’s the variation with marital status (from Table 15.6, Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey, 2005):


As earlier remarked (TO AVOID HIV INFECTION, DON’T GET MARRIED, 18 November 2007), this illustrates the usual variation with age: the widowed are likely to be on average older than the divorced, who are likely to be on average older than those currently married or in a stable relationship, who are likely to be older than those who never had sex. Note, too, that 2 per 1000 men, and 8 per 1000 women, have contracted this supposed STD without ever having had sex.

Yet another confirmation of this variation of HIV-positive with age is reported by Brewer et al., Annals of Epidemiology, 17 (2007) 217-26. The following rates of testing HIV-positive (as percentages) are extracted from their Table 5:


All show the increase with age from teens into “middle age” (which is in the 30s except with Tanzanian males and uncircumcised Kenyan males). Only 1 cell out of 32 (18-24-year-old circumcised Kenyan males) does not fit the pattern, a remarkably consistent, reproducible result for such a demographic variable.

In the Kenya data, note that uncircumcised females test positive more often than males only up to the late teens, which is more like the US data than the Rwandan; whereas in the circumcised group, females test positive more often than males into the thirties, which is more like the Rwandan data than the US data.

Note too how irreproducible is the variation of HIV-positive rate with circumcision status; in 6 cases, circumcised corresponds to a greater HIV-positive rate, in the other 10 cases it is the opposite.


Among the surprises in the US demographic data was the consistent increase of HIV-positive rates with increasing population density (which is again not characteristic of sexually transmitted diseases). Such a correlation is, however, consistent with an explanation of HIV-positive as a non-specific physiological response to a variety of minor and major insults such as environmental pollution (see p. 89 in The Origins, Persistence and Failings of HIV/AIDS Theory).

Remarkably, the same trend with population density is found in Rwanda:
“in 1986 . . . [rates of HIV-positive] were 17.8 percent in urban areas and 1.3 percent in rural areas. . . . In . . . 1991 . . . 27 percent in urban areas, 8.5 percent in semi-urban areas, and 2.2 percent in rural areas. . . . in 1996 . . . 27 percent among urban residents, 13 percent among semi-urban residents, and 6.9 percent among rural residents”; in 2002, 7.0-8.5% in urban areas and 2.6-3.6% in rural areas; in 2003, 6.9-8.3% urban, 2.7-3.6% rural.

The overall rates in 2005 were reported as 2.6 rural and 8.6 urban for women, and 1.6 rural and 5.8 urban for women. This makes the urban-to-rural ratio 3.3 for women and 3.6 for men, so similar that it speaks against any interpretation in terms of different sexual behavior by men and women. Moreover, these ratios are uncannily similar to the approximate ratio of 4 found in the United States (p. 67 in The Origins, Persistence and Failings of HIV/AIDS Theory).


I didn’t come across reports in the United States for how HIV-positive rates vary with religion, but the Rwanda report does include this information:


HIV/AIDS dogma explains rates of testing HIV-positive by sexual and drug-abusing behavior. That provides a dubious basis, to say the least, for understanding how these rates vary with religious affiliation in Rwanda: are we to infer that Muslim women are particularly prone to unsafe promiscuity or drug injecting, while Muslim men are least likely to indulge?

Under the alternative explanation of what HIV-positive means, however—namely, non-specific physiological stress* —, this wouldn’t be at all puzzling if the proportion of Muslim women who are black—of Negroid racial type—is greater than in the other religious groups, since black women are particularly prone to test HIV-positive.
[* see posts of 12 & 25 November 2007, 22 & 29 December, 4, 7, 8 & 12 January 2008]


It’s often said that scientific theories can be disproved by data that contradict them whereas theories are confirmed when they make successful predictions. Sexually transmitted diseases do not infect middle-aged people more than others in all social groups on disparate continents.
HIV/AIDS theory is disproved because “HIV” is not sexually transmitted.

The theory that HIV-positive reflects a non-specific physiological response was based (in part) on demographic data for the United States, see The Origins, Persistence and Failings of HIV/AIDS Theory. The trends published there and taken as universal constitute effectively predictions that the same trends as to age, sex, and population density would be found elsewhere. They have been found in Africa. The theory is thereby confirmed.

Posted in HIV and race, HIV as stress, HIV transmission, HIV varies with age, M/F ratios, sexual transmission | Tagged: , , , | 7 Comments »


Posted by Henry Bauer on 2008/02/03

I noted some time ago (NOTEWORTHY SUCCESSES AGAINST AIDS IN AFRICA, 4 December 2007) that several African countries (Kenya, Uganda, Zimbabwe) were able to decrease the prevalence of HIV more than could be accounted for by deaths. That’s just another of the many mysteries posed by HIV/AIDS theory. Infection by HIV is said to be permanent. Therefore, if the overall rate of infection in a country decreases, that can only be through removal of infected individuals through death or emigration—removal of a larger number than the number of new infections.

(An alternative explanation, of course, is that “HIV-positive” is neither permanent nor a sign of infection by a virus. But that simple explanation is beyond the pale.)

Rwanda offers another such nail in the coffin of HIV/AIDS theory:

“Rwanda in mass circumcision drive” (BBC, 22 January 2008 )
”Figures from the World Bank last year put the prevalence of Aids in the country at about 3%, down from 11% in 2000.”

So at least 8% of the population must have died from HIV/AIDS during seven or eight years, say 1% per year. (“At least” because it assumes no new infections during that time.) The total population is a little less than 10,000,000. Therefore about 100,000 a year must have died from HIV/AIDS.

The CIA Fact Book gives the overall death rate in Rwanda as about 15 per 1000. For the population of 10 million, this is 150,000 per year. If there were 100,000 deaths from HIV/AIDS, then deaths from all other causes would have been only 50,000, or 5 per 1000 for the population as a whole. Such a “natural” death rate of 5 per 1000, however, is impossibly lower than that in the countries enjoying the longest lifespan: overall death rates are 10.3 per 1000 in Sweden, about 9 in Japan, 8.3 in the USA, 7.9 in Canada, 7.6 in Australia.

But perhaps 100,000 didn’t die each year from HIV disease; after all, the CIA Fact Book also gives the number of HIV/AIDS deaths for 2003 as 22,000.

Perhaps 78,000 HIV-positive Rwandans (100,000 minus 22,000) became spontaneously HIV-negative each year?
No, we’re told that’s impossible (even though there are plenty of reports of spontaneous seroreversion, see for instance HIV “INFECTION” DISAPPEARS SPONTANEOUSLY, 22 January 2008)

Perhaps the HIV-positive rates reported by the World Bank were wrong by something like a factor of about 5?
Well, if so, then the policies regarding HIV/AIDS that have been followed by the World Bank and other such prestigious organizations are based on entirely wrong numbers.

Perhaps HIV/AIDS numbers issued by official bodies shouldn’t be taken too seriously?
Indeed they should not; see Russian statistics in HIV NONSENSE: TODAY AND EVERY DAY, 22 November 2007; HIV DOUBLETHINK, 27 November 2007; HIV/AIDS: NUMBERS THAT DON’T ADD UP, 29 November; WORLD AIDS DAY . . ., 22 December 2007.

Perhaps numbers from the CIA Fact Book should not be taken seriously? After all, it reports that the Rwandan population grew at an estimated rate of 2.766% (not, in other words [or numbers] a rate of 2.767%, or of 2.765%).
How could an estimate be so accurate?
Once again, apparently the output of a computer program was copied, published, and disseminated without the benefit of intervening thought. CIA statisticians need to be included among those federal officials who deserve a short course in the use of significant figures in mathematics (MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL LIES ABOUT HIV/AIDS, 2 December 2007).

Posted in HIV absurdities, HIV as stress, HIV/AIDS numbers, uncritical media | Tagged: , , | 6 Comments »


Posted by Henry Bauer on 2008/02/03

“Rwanda in mass circumcision drive” (BBC, 22 January 2008)
“Rwanda has launched a campaign to encourage all men to be circumcised, to reduce the risk of catching HIV/Aids. . . . soldiers, policemen and students would be asked to come forward first for circumcision. . . . ‘We will start this campaign with the new born and young men in universities, the army and police’. . . . While it will be nominally voluntary, correspondents say many in the armed forces will regard it as an order. . .

The UN World Health Organisation has said male circumcision reduces the risk of heterosexual HIV infection. . . . Innocent Nyaruhirira, secretary of state for Aids prevention, told the BBC’s Great Lakes Service, ‘It is a fact that men who are circumcised are 60% more likely to be protected against HIV during sexual intercourse’”.

HIV study involving University of Manitoba among top medical breakthroughs. . . .
WINNIPEG—Work done by a researcher from the University of Manitoba is among the top 10 medical breakthroughs of the year, according to Time magazine. Dr. Stephen Moses . . . found male circumcision can reduce the risk of HIV infection in men who have heterosexual sex. . . . in Kenya and Uganda . . . circumcised men were roughly 50 per cent less likely than uncircumcised men to acquire HIV during sex with women. . . . Time picked the HIV study as the second-biggest medical breakthrough of 2007.”

On the other hand:
“Unhygienic Circumcision ‘Increases Risk of Hiv’” (SciDev.Net, London, 28 February 2007)

“Museveni scoffs at circumcision for HIV-Aids” (The Monitor [Kampala] 18 February 2007)
“PRESIDENT Yoweri Museveni has trashed claims that circumcised men are less prone to HIV/Aids infection. . . . “Why are Muslims and Bagisu dying? Who beats the Bagisu when it comes to circumcising men?” . . . Among the Bagisu, a tribe in eastern Uganda, every male, between adolescence and manhood, must be circumcised.”

Circumcised male and female virgins were substantially more likely to be HIV infected than uncircumcised virgins [emphasis added] (Kenyan females: 3.2% vs. 1.4%, odds ratio [OR] Z 2.38; Kenyan males: 1.8% vs. 0%, OR undefined; Lesothoan males: 6.1% vs. 1.9%, OR 3.36; Tanzanian males: 2.9% vs. 1.0%, OR 2.99; weighted mean phi correlation Z0.07, 95% confidence interval, 0.03 to 0.11). Among adolescents, regardless of sexual experience, circumcision was just as strongly associated with prevalent HIV infection” (Brewer et al., Annals of Epidemiology 17 [2007] 217-26).

Circumcision does not affect HIV in US men
WASHINGTON, Dec 3 (Reuters)— Circumcision may reduce a man’s risk of infection with the AIDS virus by up to 60 percent if he is an African, but it does not appear to help American men of color . . . . Black and Latino men were just as likely to become infected with the AIDS virus whether they were circumcised or not, Greg Millett of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found. ‘We also found no protective benefit for a subset of black MSM (men who have sex with men) who also had recent sex with female partners . . . . Overall, we found no association between circumcision status and HIV infection status among black or Latino’ MSM. . . . Experts knew circumcision would not protect a female sex partner, nor the male sex partner being penetrated. But Millett’s study found no benefit of circumcision to any of the men. ‘We also found no protective benefit of circumcision among those men reporting recent unprotected sex with a male partner in which they were exclusively the insertive male partner’ . . . .
HIV is much more common among black and Latino men than whites and this may offset any protection offered by circumcision . . . . Black and Latino men are more likely to have sex with other black and Latino men, and thus may be exposed to HIV more often than white men.”

Above all, since it is in Rwanda that mass circumcision is being urged or perhaps even enforced, consider the data in Rwanda’s own Demographic and Health Survey for 2005 (published July 2006; available at In Chapter 15, “HIV prevalence and associated factors”, Table 15.6 on p. 234 reports the rate of HIV-positive for circumcised men as 3.8% and for not circumcised men as 2.1%. IF circumcision has a causal relation to “infection by HIV” in Rwanda, then a program of mass circumcision seems destined to increase the “infection” rate in Rwanda by about 80%. Whether or not there is a causal relation, mass circumcision will have some deleterious side-effects owing to the risk of infection by real microbes that is associated with any surgery.


This sort of thing explains why such matters must be left to the experts; the rest of us could easily become confused by the published scientific evidence which shows that circumcision decreases the chance of acquiring “HIV”—or increases it—or makes no difference. Furthermore, that it makes no difference when you are “exposed” to it more–at least, if you are Black or Latino—in the United States, that is, because for Black men in Africa it does make a difference even though they are “exposed” to it one heck of a lot more than in the United States.

On the other hand, this sort of thing shows why public policies about such matters are too important to be left to the HIV/AIDS experts; just as war is too important to be left to the generals, and for the same sort of reason: they are preoccupied with their encounters with trees, and imagine that if you’ve seen one tree you’ve seen them all, and they understand nothing about the surrounding forest.

[Re-edited in the attempt to make clear that “HIV-positive” does not mean infection by a virus]

Posted in clinical trials, experts, HIV absurdities, HIV and race, HIV risk groups, HIV/AIDS numbers, sexual transmission | Tagged: , , , | 2 Comments »

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