HIV/AIDS Skepticism

Pointing to evidence that HIV is not the necessary and sufficient cause of AIDS

Posts Tagged ‘Patient Zero’

HIV/AIDS in Italy — and “NEEDLE ZERO”

Posted by Henry Bauer on 2008/10/11

Professor Marco Ruggiero, University of Florence (Italy) kindly forwarded a copy of a PhD thesis presented on October 8. He tells me that it is now “freely available for consultation in the Library of the Department of Experimental Pathology and Oncology of the University of Firenze, Italy (”; the citation is

Scarpelli S. “HIV infection and AIDS in Italy: results supporting the chemical hypothesis”.
PhD Thesis in Biological Sciences, Faculty of Mathematical, Physical and Natural Sciences, University of Firenze, Italy, October 8, 2008. (

I can’t read Italian, but the thesis has an Abstract in English with some fascinating information:

There is no “Italian registry of HIV cases; there are no data concerning the number of new HIV infections in Italy”. The Ministry of Health does issue estimates, but “the lack of data does not allow to support the statement that there is (or that there has ever been) a HIV/AIDS epidemic in Italy; neither it allows to establish whether HIV is the cause of AIDS in Italy. This regrettable absence of surveillance is due, among other considerations, to the so called Privacy Law that, should AIDS be caused by HIV, evidently protects the individual’s right to privacy more than public health. Thus, if a laboratory finds out that an individual is HIV-positive, this information cannot be disclosed to anybody but the individual, who is then free to disregard the information and spread the virus. In fact, the Law states ‘L’identificazione del malato di HIV deve essere effettuata con modalità che non consentano l’identificazione della persona’ (art. 5, comma 2, l n. 135/1990), i.e. ‘identification of the HIV patient has to be performed with modalities that do not allow identification of the person’.”

I was struck particularly by the official recognition that HIV/AIDS is not a threat to public health. AIDS (not HIV infection) is classified “only as a third class [least dangerous or harmful] disease”, whereas influenza is in the first class and hepatitis (A, B, and C) are in the second.

Simone Scarpelli “tested the chemical hypothesis by analysing the data obtained by the rehabilitation centres for drug abuses (SerT, Servizi per le Tossicodipendenze). The data show that there is a good correlation between recreational drug abuse and AIDS cases in Italy.”

While the rate of heroin confiscation has not varied much, the pattern of consumption has changed from high usage by relatively few addicts to lower average use by a larger number of people who do not regard themselves as addicted and don’t seek treatment. The data are consistent with “a linear-quadratic model for heroin effects on the immune system and the development of AIDS” similar to that for “the biological effects of ionizing radiations and it could explain the bell-shaped curve of AIDS, the flat curve of heroin confiscation and the decreasing curve of heroin addiction in Italy. In fact, at high doses (such as in the eighties and the early nineties) the effects of heroin on the immune system are deterministic and drug addicts developed AIDS; at lower doses, however, the effects are stochastic i.e. there is only an increased probability of impairing the immune system and this might account for the decreasing AIDS incidence. According to this interpretation of the only available data for Italy, the AIDS epidemic paralleled the severe heroin abuse of the past. Nothing could be said about HIV since no data are available. This interpretation is also consistent with the recent meta-analyses that demonstrate the failure of anti-retroviral drugs in increasing survival of HIV-positive subjects (Lancet 2006; 368: 451-58), and with the statement that an AIDS vaccine could never exist (N. Engl. J. Med. 2007; 357: 2653-55).”

Scarpelli’s work supports Duesberg’s “drug-AIDS hypothesis”, for which massive evidence is collected in Duesberg, P., Koehnlein, C. and Rasnick, D., “The Chemical Bases of the Various AIDS Epidemics: Recreational Drugs, Anti-viral Chemotherapy and Malnutrition”, J. Biosci. 28 [2003] 383-412.


In the early days of “AIDS”, a certain airline steward was identified as the “Patient Zero” whose profligate promiscuity supposedly seeded AIDS around the USA. That story is inconsistent with the current belief that illness follows infection only after an average interval of about 10 years, for the claimed victims of Patient Zero’s exploits became ill within months of their contact with him, that’s how they could be identified or traced — see Shilts, And the Band Played On: p. 130, “long latency period” of 10 and 13 months in two cases. I’m not aware that this inconsistency has been remarked on in mainstream discussions, any more than the myriad other facts inconsistent with HIV/AIDS theory. I mention Patient Zero because he exemplifies the mystery of the origin of the supposed HIV/AIDS epidemics — most particularly, perhaps, those epidemics supposedly spread primarily by the sharing of needles. How does such an epidemic get started, let alone continue to spread?

Recall the authoritative recent review that I described as a textbook instance of cognitive dissonance, “The spread, treatment, and prevention of HIV-1: evolution of a global pandemic”, by Myron S. Cohen, Nick Hellmann, Jay A. Levy, Kevin DeCock, and Joep Lange, Journal of Clinical Investigation, 118 [2008] 1244-54; doi:10.1172/JCI34706, whose authors are heavyweight mainstream HIV/AIDS gurus — Levy and  DeCock have been in this business from the beginning, though DeCock blotted his copybook somewhat by admitting that there had not been and never would be heterosexual epidemics outside Africa — “WHO Says That We’ve Been Very Wrong about HIV and AIDS? (Clue: WHO = World Health Organization)”, 10 June 2008.

According to that authoritative review, different regions of the globe see HIV spreading by dramatically different pathways:

Figure A

“The HIV-1 epidemic in Western Europe is diverse but was initially fueled by infections among MSM and injecting drug users, the latter especially in the southern part of the continent (3). Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, and the United Kingdom have been most heavily affected (3). Heterosexual transmission of HIV-1 in Europe has slowly increased, and many infections today are found among immigrants from sub-Saharan Africa (3). In Eastern Europe, where brisk and severe epidemics emerged among injecting drug users in the late 1990s, the most affected countries are the Russian Federation and Ukraine (3)” — (3) is UNAIDS, “AIDS epidemic update: December 2007”.

Now, the postulated “HIV” can’t survive for long outside bodily fluids, so the needle that supposedly transfers it must have been wetted and “infected” not much earlier. Try to construct a scenario in which that’s compatible with the regional situations in Figure A. Let’s say an infected male, Patient One — gay, bisexual, or heterosexual — enters Eastern Europe and infects a drug addict; whereupon the “virus” spreads like wildfire via the necessarily postulated orgies of needle sharing, but the infection doesn’t spread much to people who just have sex without sharing needles. What happened to Patient One? Did he leave the country again? Or did he become much less inclined to have sex, at least with people who are not needle-sharing addicts?

The absurdity is illustrated by several stories from Kyrgyzstan. “According to the CIA Fact Book, by 2003 there were in Kyrgyzstan an estimated 3900 people living with HIV/AIDS, there had been fewer than 200 HIV/AIDS deaths, and the prevalence was estimated at < 0.1% (as low as anywhere in the world)” — “SMART” Study Begets More Cognitive Dissonance, 11 June 2008. In that land where HIV is so rare, “’at least 26 people, mostly children, [were] infected in two local hospitals’. . . and medical personnel were fired” [HIV-Positive Children, HIV-Negative Mothers, 25 November 2007] because, obviously, these HIV-positive children of HIV-negative mothers could only have become HIV-positive via infected needles. How did those needles become infected in the first place? Of necessity, not long before the babies were supposedly stuck with them . . . . Were the babies all injected with the same dirty needle in rapid succession, or were there 26 different sources of infection, each of them contributing a dirty needle just in time for a baby to get stuck immediately thereafter?

See also “Babies Infect Mothers; Crazy Theory Ruins Lives”, 12 April 2008: Those babies were then apparently capable of infecting their mothers as they suckled — and this in Kyrgyzstan, which doesn’t have the vampire tradition of Transylvania — or, at least, there have so far been no reports of baby vampires in Kyrgyzstan, only a wild woman or perhaps a monkey  [Kyrgyzsylvania,  Thursday, June 19, 2008].
Of course, if it was a monkey, then the source of HIV in Kyrgyzstan becomes immediately obvious — it’s an African monkey of the ilk that first infected humans with HIV decades ago (supposedly in the knee of Africa, where there’s not nearly as much “HIV” as in southern Africa, where “HIV” is rampant — Deconstructing HIV/AIDS in “Sub-Saharan Africa” and “The Caribbean”, 21 April 2008 ).

Posted in HIV absurdities, HIV in children, HIV risk groups, HIV transmission, HIV/AIDS numbers, sexual transmission | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »


Posted by Henry Bauer on 2007/11/28

Everyone knows that HIV is a sexually transmitted disease (STD), and that the chances of contracting it are much greater if you have another STD, like gonorrhea, syphilis, or chlamydia.

Everyone knows those things even though the facts contradict them.

An Australian correspondent alerted me to this recent and typical story (by Tory Shepherd, Health Reporter, November 28, 2007 (,22606,22832996-5006301,00.htm):

“A surge in the rate of sexually transmitted diseases has hit South Australia. . . . chlamydia infections have trebled to more than 3000 a year in the past decade, while gonorrhea infections have increased from about 190 to about 500. The number of HIV/AIDS infections has fluctuated, from 46 HIV and 39 AIDS infections in 1996 to 23 HIV and five AIDS in 2000, then up to 61 HIV and 14 AIDS cases in 2006. . . . the increase in other STDs could herald a rise in HIV/AIDS infections, as it showed safe sex messages were being ignored. ‘If these trends continue, an increase in HIV infections can be predicted to follow,’ it said.
‘chlamydia is largely an infection of heterosexual adolescents and young adults while HIV remains largely associated with male-to-male sex, injecting drug use and heterosexual sex overseas,’ …. ‘Syphilis and gonorrhea in metropolitan Adelaide has also been predominantly associated with men who have sex with men, but recently a few heterosexual transmissions have occurred. A major concern for the future would be if these epidemics intersect with a rise in gonorrhea and syphilis among the heterosexual community, which could herald an increase in the heterosexual transmission of HIV.’”

The cited numbers and generalizations present these facts: In the quarter century of the claimed epidemic of HIV/AIDS, STDs in South Australia have gone up but HIV and AIDS have fluctuated at a much lower level: 50 times lower than chlamydia, 4 to 10 times lower than gonorrhea, and not increasing in tandem with them. Moreover HIV/AIDS has remained within the original risk groups and has not spread into the general population.

Yet the same story that presents these facts warns against what the experience of 25 years teaches will not happen.

That is typical of reporting and of official press releases about HIV/AIDS: dire warnings in the face of the facts. The primary medical-scientific literature, cited in The Origins, Persistence and Failings of HIV/AIDS Theory, demonstrates that

“HIV” is “transmitted” via unprotected sexual intercourse about 1 in 1000 times–whereas gonorrhea or syphilis are transmitted 200-800 times per 1000 acts (pp. 44-45 in the book).
The epidemiology of “HIV” is not like that of an STD (especially p. 31 ff, p. 44 ff. in the book).
Use of condoms has not been shown to decrease the “transmission” of “HIV” (pp. 44, 109 in the book).
Rates of STDs and of “HIV” have moved in opposite directions in South-East Asia (p. 109 in the book).

How could beliefs contrary to fact persist for a couple of decades? Parts II and III of the cited book suggest these answers:
1. Medicine and clinical science, like all of science, are liable to go wrong before they eventually go less wrong, if not necessarily quite right .
2. Initial reporting, speculating, and activism about AIDS sent things on a wrong track from which we have not yet recovered.

The idea that AIDS is sexually transmitted came about because the first cases were in clusters. Then the story of the airline steward, “Patient Zero”, seemed to confirm the idea because AIDS appeared within a few weeks or months of his visits around the country. However, now that the average lag between HIV infection and AIDS symptoms is estimated at about 10 years, those bits of evidence speak AGAINST sexual transmission and for a lifestyle explanation.

Another mistaken inference has to do with Africa. In the United States, AIDS in the early 1980s was virtually restricted to gay men and to drug abusers. When in Africa about equal numbers of men and women were said to have AIDS, this was trumpeted as showing that in Africa HIV was being spread via heterosexual intercourse. The basis for this inference is wrong: genuinely heterosexually transmitted diseases–chlamydia, gonorrhea, syphilis–do not strike men and women in equal numbers. The illnesses that do strike men and women equally are those transmitted though the air like flu, or via insects like malaria, or via the environment as with unsafe drinking water or malnutrition, say.

Posted in HIV does not cause AIDS, HIV transmission, sexual transmission | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

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