HIV/AIDS Skepticism

Pointing to evidence that HIV is not the necessary and sufficient cause of AIDS

What numbers mean: 50% of “HIV-positives” are long-term non-progressors

Posted by Henry Bauer on 2010/06/04

Numbers may seem like indisputable facts, but as with other “facts”, what matters is their significance, how they are interpreted. Those who present us with numbers don’t always point to the appropriate way to interpret them, however. Indeed, manifold devices are deployed — unwittingly as well as deliberately — to help numbers insinuate unwarranted implications. Read, for example, Darrell Huff’s “How to Lie with Statistics” to be alerted to the grain of truth in the common saying that “There are lies, damned lies, and statistics”.

One does not need to be a mathematician or a statistician to think sensibly about the significance conveyed by numbers. A few general points, expressed as questions to ask of presented numbers, can be of enormous help:
→   What is the accuracy, the margin of uncertainty?
→  Was the measurement made on an appropriate sample?
→  With surveys of humans: How were the questions phrased?
→   Above all: Is this detailed report overall compatible with the accepted theory?

I’ve been puzzled a number of times as mainstream articles present numbers clearly incompatible with HIV/AIDS theory without bringing a storm of commentary let alone re-evaluation.

One occasion was what eventually made me an AIDS Rethinker. Harvey Bialy cited (at p. 184) the early finding that teenage girls and boys applying for military service from all over the United States in the mid-1980s tested “HIV-positive” at about the same rate. This was obviously quite incompatible with the orthodox view of HIV/AIDS, namely, that HIV entered the United States during the 1970s within communities of gay men and caused AIDS among them by the late 1970s and early 1980s: in no way could such a purported infection have spread by the mid-1980s throughout the country to affect teenage girls everywhere as often as teenage boys. Therefore I suspected there was something wrong with the source Bialy had cited, and I set out to confirm that suspicion. The rest is history. The source was cited correctly, and together with all other published data on HIV tests demonstrates beyond any doubt that what the “HIV” tests detect or measure is not an AIDS-causing infectious agent; see my book  about it.*

Then there’s the fact that the peak age for testing “HIV-positive” is the same as the peak age for an AIDS diagnosis and the same as the peak age for death from “HIV disease”, making obvious nonsense of the “latent period” “slow-virus” story [No HIV “latent period”: dotting i’s and crossing t’s, 21 September 2008].

That last concerns numbers that are not widely disseminated, though, I had to calculate them from other published data. So too with the fact that mortality among “people living with AIDS” is independent of age, unlike with every other ailment to which humankind is subject and incontrovertibly nonsensical [Age shall not wither them — because HIV really doesn’t kill, 4 February 2009].

But there’s an entirely straightforward, publicly disseminated numerical assertion that had been nagging at me for quite some time because, as with the paper cited by Bialy, it’s quite obviously incompatible with the official view of HIV/AIDS: the repeated assertions from official spokespeople that something like a quarter or a third of “HIV-positive” people don’t know their state of “infection”. This has become so much a shibboleth that it has recently been emphasized as support for initiatives to institute universal HIV testing and treatment [GAYnocide in San Francisco, 2010/04/04].
But if this assertion were true then the standard story about HIV/AIDS could not be true. From at least the mid-1980s, about a million Americans have been “HIV-positive” (see sources cited at pp. 1-2 & 108 in The Origin, Persistence and Failings of HIV/AIDS Theory). If 250,000-330,000 of them were not known to be “infected”, and if on average they would succumb to AIDS about a decade later (since obviously they were not being treated), then the numbers of AIDS deaths should have climbed towards ≥250,000 annually by the mid-1990s at the latest and should have remained at least that high ever since. But AIDS deaths have been nowhere near such numbers.**
Therefore, if the CDC’s assertions are correct that 25-33% of “HIV-positives” don’t know it, and yet AIDS deaths have been much lower than would correspond to this, then a large proportion of “HIV-positive” people must have been long-term non-progressors or elite controllers — apparently unbeknownst to the CDC, though they surely should have drawn this plain inference from their own statements.

The proportion of potential long-term non-progressors can in fact be calculated from available official data. CDC has published firm estimates of the annual number of new HIV “infections”. Many estimates have been published over the years of the total numbers of “HIV-positive” Americans.*** Detailed numbers are made available periodically by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about numbers of people “living with HIV”, “living with HIV/AIDS”, and dead from AIDS (or “HIV disease”).

It turns out that
if every American were to be HIV-tested,
something like half of them would be
potential long-term non-progressors or elite controllers

The detailed calculations can be found in the earlier cited article in the Italian Journal of Anatomy and Embryology [Medical students in Africa need not fear HIV, 2010/05/31; REPRINT of Galletti & Bauer, 2010/06/03], and also now in a different context in “Iatrogenic harm following ‘HIV’ testing”, Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, 15 (#2, summer 2010) 42-46.  It’s gratifying that the Journal’s press release about this article was picked up quite widely, for example by Yahoo! Politics which boasts 56,825,000 visitors/day, or AOL DailyFinance
(a mere 860,000 visitors/day).

The title of that article reflects an obvious chain of reasoning. If everyone who tests “HIV-positive” were to be put on antiretroviral drugs, which is increasingly being urged irrespective of individual state of health or CD4 count, then about half of those people would be severely damaged for no good reason by the debilitating “side” effects of antiretroviral treatment.

The $2.5 million awarded to Audrey Serrano may then be just the harbinger of a huge future bonanza for trial lawyers; but perhaps they would collectively gladly forfeit such bounty if that would avoid the enormous human costs of subjecting tens of thousands of healthy Americans — and many more than that Africans — to iatrogenic harm from misguided, uncalled-for, unwarranted antiretroviral treatment.

* Please note that nothing in my book has been discredited. All the reviews by uncommitted individuals have been thoroughly favorable. The most determined critic, Kalichman, could only find fault by attacking things that are not said in my book (see “Kalichman re-writes Bauer’s book — Kalichman’s disgracefully un-Komical Kaper #10”, 2009:05:26). The most determinedly negative review of my book on was so egregiously non-substantive and ad hominem that its author — then graduate student and AIDS-truther, Kenneth Witwer — soon withdrew it.

**Actually even earlier than the mid-1990s the numbers of AIDS deaths should have been higher than they actually were, because a million Americans didn’t become “HIV-infected” suddenly in 1985, by then there must have been substantial numbers of “HIV-positive” Americans for quite a few years already.

*** Always since 1985 the number has magically remained the same at about 1 million. That in itself ought to have sufficed to raise strenuous doubts about HIV/AIDS theory.

16 Responses to “What numbers mean: 50% of “HIV-positives” are long-term non-progressors”

  1. Martin said

    Hi Dr. Bauer, Statistics used on absolutely crap data has yielded the state of what we have now. How do we know anyone has been “infected” with HIV. Are we to believe anything the CDC, the NIH, or even your “trusted” physician tells you? I think those in power know the consequences of this incredible fraud – the loss of their credibility – because if AIDS isn’t true, what else has been lied about? That is why the AIDS machine is working so hard to squelch their shenanigans. Their problem is the free press and the internet – a technology that wasn’t available when the disease was declared. The internet came to public awareness around 1993-94 – about 7-8 years after Gallo made his press conference declaration on the cause of AIDS.

    • Born Skeptic said

      With all due respect, Martin, it seems to me this “HIV=AIDS” propaganda has gone far beyond being merely a medical condition, and has taken on more of a social-political construct much like racism or misogyny. It serves so many people so well, there is really no reason why anyone in power would question it. I’m sure there were many researchers publishing papers in the respectable medical journals 100 years ago detailing the intellectual inferiority of blacks and women, and it was no doubt very easy for researchers to get funding to investigate the intellectual inferiority of blacks and women. I just watched the movie “Milk” and even from that weak Hollywood interpretation, one can feel the horror of the general public at the thought of gay men and women being treated equally. AIDS put an nice end to all that by dividing the gay movement into those “infected” and those not. And I have heard more than a few gay men remark to lesbians that “You just don’t understand”. HIV=AIDS has done a nice job of terrorizing the general public too, pushing them back from the 1960s and 1970s Godless behavior to the good ole 1950s. AIDS has also worked wonderfully to once again show how backward and corrupt Africa is, as if to support racists in the US and elsewhere. No, Martin, HIV is no longer a medical condition, but a tool to keep a boot on the neck of undesirables and manipulate world opinion. It’s just too damn good of a propaganda tool to go anywhere.

  2. Emanuel said

    Dr.Bauer I read your two recent scientific articles and they are excellent,the thing is that most HIV+ people they can’t know if they have an active infection,because viral culture test is very expensive and a few laboratories do it,P24 test is very inespecific,and they have been viral loads in HIV- people.
    In other topic guys what are your opinions about Dr.Hutter treatment in Germany with the american patient,for the AIDS establishment it’s the first cure with a treatment (remember that they say that the fisrt cure was the case of Andrew Stimspon but it was a “natural” cure).
    I have the feeling that there are more people that they have defeated AIDS or “HIV” clinicaly and in lab numbers like Tommy Morrison,but I have not found a good number of cases,but the case that it impressed me is the case of Norman Sartor the patient of Dr.Harold Foster
    Finally I found this in the “Body” website,it’s in spanish but you can use the google translator bar.
    It’s an anecdotical case that support the things that Dr.Bauer wrote in his last articles about the HIV tests,and the Perth Group Western Blot Chart,is the case of a person that it is positive in Spain and taking Atripla,but they moved to live to Ecuador and it is negative in the Western Blot tests in Ecuador (I don’t know what is the criteria of the Western Blot test in these countries).

    • Henry Bauer said

      There’s no way to “know if they have an active infection” because actual virions of HIV have never been demonstrated in anyone. As to people who have “defeated” AIDS or “HIV”, read Christine Maggiore’s book, many testimonies.

      • Tom Hemmingsen said

        How can we have RNA and DNA PCR assays for HIV if the virions were never found in anyone?

        Would you argue that there is no such thing as a virus (because we can’t see it)?

        Would you argue that evolution doesn’t exist because we have never seen a large complex organism give birth to a different yet fully functional organism?

        I can’t follow your thought process or see what supports your arguments/conclusions.

        It seems that you want your cake and eat it too, with regard to other arguments on your web site. Did Gallo steal HIV virus isolates from Luc Montagnier and Francoise Barre-Sinoussi? If so, where did Luc Montagnier and Francoise Barre-Sinoussi get them from – if not from a patient dying from a disease that we now call HIV/AIDS?

        Are you simply claiming that the disease is more complex, say “Syndrome”? IF so, isn’t that what the ‘S’ in AIDS stands for?

        We have one Dr. Nobuto Yamamoto claiming to have cured 39 ex-HIV+ patients by supplementing their production of GcMAF with weekly injections of tiny amounts (100ng) of either GcMAF from pooled human blood plasma or something (patentable) that he refers to as “cloned” GcMAF. So, we have a pathogenic mechanism, which (by the way) is shared with most cancers and with the flu. That mechanism is that all those things (HIV, most cancers & flu) make an enzyme that destroys GcMAF. That enzyme is called Nagalase (for short). Its full name is alpha-N-acetylgalactosaminidase.

        It would appear that the only reason we don’t have these treatments available for people who need them is because greedy people and governments just want to have profits – and lots of them.

        Because GcMAF is a natural substance, and because our good-for-nothing governments refuse to run clinical trials of GcMAF, corporations will not touch it because they know that there will be an economic “race to the bottom” (bottom/lowest profit margin) because they can’t patent it.

        Now THAT IS the problem that your web site SHOULD be broadcasting.

        Like the often misused “Freedom is not Free” phrase Capitalism is not “Free” either.

      • Henry Bauer said

        Tom Hemmingsen:

        The PCR assays “for HIV” are nonsense because there’s no gold standard, i.e. no virions ever isolated from “HIV+” people.

        You need to flesh out what you mean by “see” in connection with virus existence. They can be seen in electron microscopes. NATURAL “HIV”, by contrast to synthesized “HIV”, has never been seen in that way. I know of no other claimed virus for which that’s the case.

        Gallo stole MATERIAL from Montagnier. Montagnier called it lymphadenopathy-associated-virus, an empirical justified term. Gallo claimed it teh cause of AIDS, and Montagnier jumped on the bandwagon.

        I’m claiming that it’s never been shown that “HIV” virions exist, nor of course that their action in vivo destroys the immune system.

  3. Nokwindla said

    Hi Henry,

    I trust my post finds you and your readers well, and that you are having as much fun as we are here in South Africa. Please find herewith an interesting article regards the Swine Flu “swindle”, in respect of which I find a pertinent analogy to the HIV industry, and the dangers of embedded science:


  4. beginner said

    Doctor Bauer,

    Talking about statistics, every time we get more proofs that the HIV establishment is wrong. I just found this media article (in Portuguese) explaining that HIV+ blood can be safely used in transfusions when the blood is washed with a saline solution.Some research on the mentioned researcher’s name probably can give the exact reference.

    In fact, I think they don’t even need to use the saline solution to wash the blood…because there is no virus!,,OI4478987-EI188,00-Estudo+revela+que+sangue+com+HIV+pode+ser+usado+em+transfusoes.html

  5. beginner said

    Dr. Bauer,

    Even though statistics are often used to prove false statements and to reach wrong conclusions, good researchers still use them to show that not always what every doctor says according to his own experience is true. This way, statistics can be heroes when used and interpreted correctly.
    One good example of a good use of statistics is related to the relationship between HIV+ status and periodontal diseases, fact that is considered almost unquestionable by every HIV-specialist.

    The article explain how the “odd ratios” can show a traditional mainstream opinion to be proved FALSE.

    Abstract excerpt.
    Our odds ratios did not reveal any significant associations between bleeding on probing, pocket formation or attachment loss with regard to lymphocyte and CD4+ T cell counts among the HIV infected individuals and AIDS patients. When associations were investigated with regard to HIV serostatus (HIV seronegative. HIV seropositive or AIDS), our adjusted odds ratios were insignificant, too. In fact, most odds ratios were close to 1. Thus, our study supports recent views that the presence, extent and severity of periodontal disease among HIV infected individuals, may be less that hitherto thought.

    Serious researchers, with no conflict of interest, never fight against numbers.

    Thank you,


  6. Tom Hemmingsen said

    Enough said:

    • Henry Bauer said

      Tom Hemmingsen:
      The link you give lists 9 items said to be the arguments of those who don’t accept that HIV causes AIDS. None of those are my reasons. The latter are given at some length, using mainstream data, in my book, The Origin, Persistence and Failings of HIV/AIDS Theory (McFarland 2007). HIV and AIDS are not correlated chronologically, geographically, nor in their relative impacts on men and women, or on members of different racial groups.
      ‘Nuff said!

    • Guy said

      Tom Hemmingsen,

      Enough said? While this list of assertions is the most impressive I have seen in favor of the hypothesis that AIDS is caused by a sexually transmitted virus, it is anemic in contrast to the number of books and articles and video clips that support an alternative hypothesis. The list is interesting, but is totally devoid of references. The Mexican study is intriguing, but I would like to read the details of the study. The reference to the individuals who caught aids from puncture wounds directly contradicts the assertions of Dr. Bauer in his book. Again, references would be helpful. The assertion that HIV has always preceded AIDS in a population is macabre irony, as the treatment for seropositivity to what has been confused with a test for HIV has often been “AIDS in a bottle”, or AZT.

      Click to access debating_azt.pdf

      The list you provide is certainly a good starting point for discussion of the matter, but hardly “enough said”.

      • Henry Bauer said

        Google “Tom Hemmingsen HIV” and you find out that he’s been for at least a decade a member of Chicago Adult ACTG CAB (Community Advisory Board, AIDS Clinical Trials Group), and touting Yamamoto’s guaranteed cure. I think that explains why he is ignorant of the content of what Rethinkers have published and unthinkingly parrots assertions (maybe from Kalichman? from Moore?) about what we Rethinkers are claimed to say, which bears little if any relation to what we really say.
        So, without regret, I’ve stopped posting his comments.

  7. Norman Sartor said

    Hello Dr. Bauer,

    Norman Sartor here wanting thank you for making mention. The cause of AIDS will dispute till such time that all myths and misinformation are exposed.

    There is no disputing the fact that HIV individuals can live quite healthfully without the use anti-retrovirals. AIDS guru Dr. Luc Montagnier stated in December 2009 that AIDS could be cured not treated with fresh water and good food. He also stated that an individual could contract HIV many times and not know it.

    I do know that I am HIV+ and have been so for fifteen years.
    I have the lab reports evidencing dramatic changes in health in the absence of drugs, using vitamin therapy.

    Some call it chimera or wishful thinking. I was skeptical at first however, the numbers told a different story.

    What Really Causes AIDS by the late Dr. Harold Foster is a must read for any individual living with HIV.

    Norman Sartor

    • Henry Bauer said

      Norman Sartor:
      Thank you. Yes, Foster’s work is well worth attending to; for instance, intriguing correlations between AIDS in Africa and selenium deficiencies.

    • Adelya said

      Normant Sartor, how can I contact you? Adelya

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