HIV/AIDS Skepticism

Pointing to evidence that HIV is not the necessary and sufficient cause of AIDS

Archive for March, 2010

Predicting rates of “HIV-positive” — and racial cleansing

Posted by Henry Bauer on 2010/03/14

It’s widely acknowledged that the soundness of a theory can be gauged by how well it can predict future phenomena*.
Here’s my theory about what testing “HIV-positive” means:
1. A positive “HIV” test reflects a wide variety of conditions, including common conditions like flu, pregnancy, flu vaccination, and the like, and less common and more serious conditions like tuberculosis and the consequences of habitual drug abuse. Damage to the intestinal microflora is a powerful inducer of “HIV-positive”, and this seems to be a particular risk for gay men.
2. The tendency to test positive under any given one of those conditions varies in predictable fashion by sex, age, and race.
3. Therefore certain population groups test “HIV-positive” more often others: in particular drug addicts, TB patients, pregnant women, gay men.
4. In any given otherwise homogeneous group, positive “HIV” tests are most frequent in early middle age, say 35-45 (varying slightly by sex and race: lower for women and for people of African ancestry).
5. If all other variables are randomly distributed, testing “HIV-positive” is more frequent in  urban environments than rural ones.
That theory is not pulled out of a hat, of course; it is derived from the demographics of “HIV” tests in the United States, see The Origin, Persistence and Failings of HIV/AIDS Theory.

The statistical “Law of Large Numbers” states that when a large enough number of observations is made, the observed average will approach the true average.
Let’s extend that to comparing large population groups, in which the variables of age, sex, etc., and the incidence of such conditions as tuberculosis, flu, pregnancy, etc., are likely to be randomly distributed — as would be the case for a national population, say, or for a large metropolis. In particular, let’s compare the national average for testing “HIV-positive” with the rate of testing “HIV-positive” in Washington, DC.
The variables that will NOT be randomly distributed, but that will be greater in Washington than the national average, are
1. Race
2. Proportion of habitual drug abusers (higher in metropolitan areas than rural ones)
3. Proportion of gay men (higher in metropolitan areas than rural ones)

2 and 3 represent differences that are minor compared to the racial differences in testing “HIV-positive”, because they form small percentages of both metropolitan and national populations, whereas African Americans represent significant percentages of both.
Now, people of African ancestry test “HIV-positive” at rates that are perhaps 5 to 20 times greater than people of European ancestry.
People of African ancestry represent about 1 in 8 Americans (~12%).
People of African ancestry represent about 6 of every 10 residents of Washington, DC (~60%).

Unless the racial composition of Washington, DC, changes significantly, the rate of testing “HIV-positive” there will be approximately 5 times the national average.


This little exercise was stimulated by a “CNN Presents” TV program on the night of Saturday, March 13. Several experts were deploring the fact that the rate of “HIV-positive” in Washington is more than 3 times the national average (3% vs. <1%). Naturally the experts called for even further “prevention” efforts and described a number of initiatives intended to enhance prevention.

I repeat my prediction: None of the initiatives will have any effect. The rate of testing “HIV-positive” in Washington, DC, will continue to be approximately 5 times the national average (0.6% in 2007 according to the CIA Fact Book) unless the racial composition of that region changes significantly.
The only effective “intervention” would therefore be “racial cleansing” of Washington.
While that is of course out of the question as a conscious, deliberate policy, it is nevertheless a fairly likely albeit unintended consequence of the increasingly strident official recommendations that everyone be tested and all “HIV-positive” individuals be immediately “treated” with antiretroviral drugs irrespective of their state of health, CD4 count, or anything else (e.g., “Universal HIV testing gaining worldwide support”, 23 February 2010). Such a program would cause people so tested and “treated” to die at an earlier age — proportionately, many more African Americans and pregnant women. Thereby the racial composition of the region will change, just as though the intention had been a gradual racial cleansing.

For pertinent posts relating to Washington and to race, see
Sex, Race, and “HIV”, 14 May 2008
Anthony Fauci explains racial disparities in “HIV/AIDS”, 3 June 2008
STOP PRESS: 40% DECREASE in HIV in Washington DC, 18 March 2009

and note that “HIV-positive” was said to be 3% a year ago, just as it was said to be in last night’s program. My prediction is looking good already.


[Universal testing and immediate HAART will also, of course, bring about “sexual cleansing” by depleting the population of gay men at a much higher rate than for heterosexual men.]

* However, the theory must be described so clearly and tightly that  anyone using it would make the same predictions; that’s why Velikovsky’s predictions of a hot Venus and radio signals from Jupiter brought him no credit ins the scientific community — see Beyond Velikovsky: The History of a Public Controversy, University of Illinois Press, 1984. For other caveats see Stephen G. Brush, “Prediction and theory evaluation: the case of light bending”, Science, 246 [1989] 1124-9; “Prediction and theory evaluation: Alfven on space plasma phenomena”, Eos, 71 [no.2, 1990] 19-33.

Posted in experts, HIV and race, HIV does not cause AIDS, HIV risk groups, HIV skepticism, HIV tests, HIV/AIDS numbers, prejudice, uncritical media | Tagged: , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Same old, same old ignorance and idiocies

Posted by Henry Bauer on 2010/03/13

Media coverage of HIV/AIDS is largely ignorant of most of the facts, so alarm is expressed over “changes” that aren’t changes; and obvious inferences aren’t drawn because they aren’t compatible with HIV/AIDS dogma. Here are a few items picked up by yesterday by my Google Alert:


Surprise?! Gay men test “HIV-positive” more frequently than others?!

You Are All Diseased: Gay Men’s HIV Infections Rising 44X Faster than Straight Men
We’re really trying to wrap our heads around this statistic, because it’s off the deep-end of troubling. ‘A new analysis released Wednesday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control & Prevention,’ relays D.C. Agenda, ‘shows that the rate of new HIV infections among men who have sex with men, also referred to as MSM, is more than 44 times greater than that of other men and 40 times greater than that of women’” [emphasis added].
This is from a blog that focuses on “the gay agenda” and yet appears ignorant of the fact that gay men have tested “HIV-positive” an order of magnitude or two more often than, say, military personnel, ever since the beginning of the AIDS era — for example, Table 3 or Figure 22 in The Origin, Persistence and Failings of HIV/AIDS Theory.
So what’s there to “wrap heads around”?
Here’s the comment I posted on that blog:
“Gay men have tested ‘HIV-positive’ at rates that are an order of magnitude or two higher than for, say, Army personnel, ever since the beginning of the ‘AIDS era’. What seems so little understood is that this does NOT reflect relative rates of irresponsible sexual behavior because
1. HIV tests do not in themselves detect HIV infection, have never been approved for that purpose, and have a high rate of ‘false positives’ and cross-reactions with other conditions EVEN WHEN SO-CALLED CONFIRMATORY TESTS ARE USED; see
Press Release: ‘A positive routine “HIV test” is likely to be a false positive, scientist explains’, 2010/03/09
2. A positive HIV-test may OR MAY NOT reflect a threat to health. Most pertinent for gay men: certain practices that are generally thought of as hygienic, like rectal douching, actually enhance the chances of testing poz through damaging the intestinal microflora that are the first defense established by the immune system; see


Failure to aid drug users drives HIV spread — study
* ‘Critical problem’ in Russia, China, Malaysia, Thailand . . .
LONDON, March 1 (Reuters) — More than 90 percent of the world’s 16 million injecting drug users are offered no help to avoid contracting AIDS, and governments that ignore them risk a spiralling public health crisis, drugs experts said on Monday.
Injecting drug use is an increasingly important cause of HIV transmission in many countries around the world. Users can spread the virus in blood by sharing needles with an HIV-infected person, and pass it on by having unprotected sex.
Of the estimated 16 million injecting drug users worldwide, 3 million are thought to be HIV-positive, and drug users are thought to account for 10 percent of all those living with HIV.
In Russia, for example, around a million injecting drug users are living with HIV and some 65 percent of new HIV infections there are thought to come from injections.”
What those “drug experts” and other “experts” don’t recognize is the rather obvious inference that it’s the drugs themselves that are causing people to test “HIV-positive” and making people ill:
Routine “HIV” tests; herbal magic; Canadian natives at risk, 21 August 2009
“HIV/AIDS” in Estonia: Demographics and shibboleths, 18 August 2009
Estonian drug addicts don’t have much sex, 13 August 2009
Crack cocaine causes AIDS!, 12 August 2008
Cocaine and heroin aren’t good for you! — a Golden Fleece Award, 13 June 2008

[and, incidentally, that antiretroviral drugs can make things even worse — Drug peddlers’ ads ignore FDA, 5 November 2009]


HIV: getting all South Africans tested
12 March 2010
The government is scaling up its HIV/Aids prevention and treatment programme by shifting away from voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) to HIV counselling and testing (HCT), a new service delivery model that will see HIV testing become part of procedure at all health facilities.
In addition to the testing, all health care facilities will also be equipped to offer anti-retroviral treatment. Anyone who walks into a health facility will be offered a test as opposed to South Africans having to go for voluntary testing.”
So we can look forward to increasing numbers of healthy people being found “HIV-positive” — because of pregnancy, say — and subjected to antiretroviral drugs that make them unhealthy:  Press Release: “A positive routine ‘HIV test’ is likely to be a false positive, scientist explains”, 2010/03/09


Finally, the ones so truly crazy that you find it hard to believe that the story wasn’t made up:

Christian group says gay marriage more dangerous than smoking
By Jason Hancock 3/12/10 4:53 PM
Homosexual activity is ‘more dangerous for individuals who engage in it than is smoking,’ and because of this, state lawmakers need to pass a constitutional amendment overturning last year’s Iowa Supreme Court decision legalizing same-sex marriage, according to Iowa Family Policy Center President Chuck Hurley. . . .
‘The Iowa Legislature outlawed smoking [in some public places] in an effort to improve health and reduce the medical costs that are often passed on to the state . . . . The secondhand impacts of certain homosexual acts are arguably more destructive, and potentially more costly to society than smoking. . . .
Iowa lawmakers need to pay attention to hard facts and not be persuaded by emotion laden half-truths” [emphasis added].
I need some help in understanding what those “secondhand impacts” might be. What I do understand is that Hurley imagines himself to be one who pays attention to hard facts and isn’t prone to emotional acceptance of half truths; he needs to learn from Robbie Burns: “Oh wad some power the giftie gie us to see oursels as others see us!”

Posted in antiretroviral drugs, experts, HIV absurdities, HIV does not cause AIDS, HIV risk groups, HIV skepticism, HIV tests, HIV transmission, HIV/AIDS numbers, uncritical media | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments »

Press Release: “A Positive Routine ‘HIV Test’ Is Likely To Be a False Positive, Scientist Explains”

Posted by Henry Bauer on 2010/03/09

Association of American Physicians & Surgeons

Mar 9, 2010
Contact: Jane Orient, M.D. (800) 323-3110,
or Henry Bauer, Ph.D., (540) 951-2107,

For immediate release:

A Positive Routine “HIV Test” Is Likely To Be a False Positive, Scientist Explains

In many jurisdictions, tests for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are required screening for pregnant women. Some even suggest screening the entire population for HIV. The rationale is to administer powerful antiretroviral drugs to healthy individuals to “prevent transmission.”

But what if healthy people take expensive, toxic drugs for a condition they cannot transmit because they don’t have it?

In the spring 2010 issue of the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, Henry H. Bauer, Ph.D., writes that “HIV tests are not HIV tests.” A positive test does not mean that a person has or will get AIDS. It doesn’t even mean that he has HIV. Rather, it is a test for antibodies, either to HIV or to something that cross-reacts with it.

The FDA said in 1987 that “the significance of antibodies in an asymptomatic individual is not known.” It is still not known, as positive tests have been reported in many illnesses, including multiple sclerosis, tuberculosis, malaria, and aplastic anemia. They have also been reported after immunizations to tetanus or influenza, and may even be caused by pregnancy itself.

“The problem of false positive tests applies to all screening tests, not just HIV,” states Jane M. Orient, M.D., executive director of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS). “If a population with a very low likelihood of a disease is tested, there will be very few positive tests. But even with an excellent test, a positive is more likely than not to be a false positive.”

If only one in 1,000 tested individuals has HIV, then only one out of every six positive tests is a true positive, even if the HIV test is as good as is claimed.

This is why a test that is a very good for screening blood donors can do much more harm than good if used to screen the entire population, Dr. Orient stated.

Dr. Bauer’s article on HIV testing can be accessed at


Posted in HIV tests | Tagged: , , | 17 Comments »

Evidence — Archives — Resources

Posted by Henry Bauer on 2010/03/08

Try to convince someone that HIV/AIDS theory is wrong, and you have a number of difficulties. An important one is that most people can’t imagine that “everyone”, the authoritative agencies, the big media, could possibly be wrong about such a thing. One way to respond to that is to show that competent, distinguished, well informed scientists explain how and why it’s never been established that HIV exists or that “HIV” cause AIDS, that in fact there’s strong evidence against those things, and that moreover the drugs used to treat patients on the basis of HIV/AIDS theory are deadly.

But how can you show people that?

Best by video of competent, distinguished, well informed scientists expounding those things.

How can you get hold of such videos?

A marvelous resource is at the Immunity Resource Foundation:
From 1990, a 40-minute documentary featuring Peter Duesberg, from British TV (Channel 4);
from 2000, an interview with President Thabo Mbeki;
from 1998, an exposition of the Perth Group’s challenge to the identification of HIV and an explanation of the vast differences between different “Western Blot” tests.
You can see John Lauritsen commenting on the 1993 Berlin World AIDS Conference; and a one-hour British TV documentary filmed in several places in Africa in 1993.

Did you know that there had been a dissidents’ conference before the Oakland one last year? At the Immunity Resource Foundation website, you can see Sky News coverage of the 1992 Amsterdam Alternative AIDS Conference.
You can see BBC’s 1989 critique of Gallo’s claim to be a discoverer of HIV; Tony Brown’s interview with John Lauritsen; Michael Callen; and lots more. And there are archives of important dissidents’ articles, and links to important websites. But the videos are a unique, irreplaceable treasure. I wrote about this invaluable resource also  a couple of years ago when it was not yet so well developed [Resources for HIV/AIDS dissidents, 1 March 2008].

The Immunity Resource Foundation has an impressive title, and it’s a registered charity, but it’s maintained by just one courageous lady, Joan Shenton, whose financial resources don’t match her courage or her ambition to make these invaluable resources available to everyone, in the hopes that eventually the world will wake up and stop killing healthy people with toxic “medications” just because a semi-functional “illness” test labels them “HIV-positive”.

Joan needs help to keep this going. She sent a budget breakdown recently, and the upshot is this: To keep the archive available, to add new materials, to cover maintenance costs, adds up to about $12,000 a year. That’s really a trivial amount for such an important venture — but someone has to pay for it. Joan has managed to cover nearly $10,000 from her own personal funds — by mortgaging her house and taking out a bank loan. Even with that, she’s short about $2000 per year and doesn’t know where that can come from — some earlier donors haven’t been able to keep up their contributions.


If you could make a regular donation,
no matter how small, please let Joan know that too

Posted in experts, Funds for HIV/AIDS, HIV does not cause AIDS, HIV skepticism | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Medical students in Italy need not fear “HIV” when dissecting cadavers

Posted by Henry Bauer on 2010/03/06

Dissection is a necessary part of medical education, and medical students are as likely as others to suffer fear in consequence of the propaganda that HIV/AIDS is a threat to everyone, especially where contact with blood or bodily fluids or tissues is concerned.

Their fear is unjustified.

The evidence is that anatomical dissection presents no discernible risk of infection with “HIV”: three decades of the AIDS era have produced only a single claimed case of such infection — and a single unreproduced report of anything is most likely an artefact.

This record illustrates why the Italian Ministry of Health does not consider HIV or AIDS to be significant public-health threats. Moreover the Ministry acknowledges cases of AIDS in absence of “HIV”, and of “HIV-positive” that have not led to AIDS.

All this throws considerable doubt on the hypothesis that “HIV” causes AIDS, to say the least. The full story is published in the peer-reviewed Italian Journal of Anatomy and Embryology, a long-established mainstream journal (which is of course abstracted by the National Library of Medicine). Here’s the abstract posted at PubMed:

“Ital J Anat Embryol. 2009 Apr-Sep;114(2-3):97-108.
On the risk of contracting AIDS at the dissection table.

Ruggiero M, Galletti MP, Pacini S, Punzi T, Morucci G, Gulisano M.

Department of Experimental Pathology and Oncology, University of Firenze, Italy.

Didactic dissection of the human body is still considered the best tool to teach and learn anatomy. Although the risk of being infected with pathogens during dissection has dramatically decreased, fear of infection is still widespread among medical students and health care professionals. The fear of contracting AIDS at the dissection table is of particular relevance because of the emotional implications accompanying the syndrome. In this study we analyze the actual risks of contracting AIDS during dissection in Italy by evaluating health policies and proportions of the epidemic. According to the Italian Ministry of Health, HIV infection and AIDS are not to be considered relevant threats to public health from the epidemiological point of view, and it is estimated that 99.7% of health care workers, who are exposed to HIV, will not be infected. In fact, there is only one well-documented case of an autopsy acquired HIV infection that happened in 1992 the United States. Furthermore, HIV infection is not necessarily associated with AIDS, and most HIV-positive subjects do not develop AIDS, provided that they do not assume toxic drugs or engage in risky behaviours. Conversely, according to the Ministry, AIDS can occur in the absence of signs of HIV infection. Taken together these considerations should help rationalizing the fear of contracting AIDS at the dissection table. The dissection hall can still be a dangerous place and the adoption of safe working practices and awareness of potential risks are mandatory; HIV serophobia, however, is unjustified.

PMID: 20198822 [PubMed – in process]”

Observers of the controversy over HIV/AIDS may be aware that the points made in this peer-reviewed article abstracted by PubMed were earlier made in an article that had been accepted by Medical Hypotheses and posted online, but which was later hastily withdrawn by a vice-president of the commercial publisher, Elsevier, after he received an e-mail asserting that the publication of articles questioning HIV/AIDS orthodoxy constituted “a potential threat to global public health”. (! The pen is, apparently, really mightier than the sword!)
The cabal of fanatical defenders of the mainstream orthodoxy who sent that protest also threatened to have libraries, including the National Library of Medicine, drop subscriptions to and abstracting of Medical Hypotheses.
In the event, the National Library of Medicine ignored the cabal’s demand to stop taking notice of Medical Hypotheses. Elsevier’s attempt to save face after its vice-president’s hasty, ill-advised action culminated in an in-house recommendation that the journal, which had been founded to publish controversial matters that would otherwise be censored by mainstream “peer review”, should become just another peer-reviewed house organ. That suggestion has been roundly criticized by, among others, an editorial in the British Medical Journal (Geoff Watts, “Emasculating hypothetical oddities?”, BMJ 2010;340:c726) and by numerous correspondents to the blog at Medical Hypotheses itself — see “Authors’ letters of support for Medical Hypotheses”, 19 February 2010: “I have received more than one hundred and fifty individual letters of support for Medical Hypotheses in its current form, mostly from scholars who have published in the journal in the past”.

It’s becoming abundantly clear that, when a wider audience learns of the antics of HIV/AIDS vigilantes who want to silence all questioning voices, the vigilantes find themselves to be an isolated little sect whose unscientific approach is deplored by all and sundry.

For a time this handful of dogmatists had things its own way, so long as their behavior did not become widely known, in some part because of their personal connections to a few gatekeepers. But publications like this one in the Italian Journal of Anatomy and Embryology can’t be censored.

Many centuries ago, the European Renaissance was born in Florence, Italy. The modern renaissance of evidence-based, non-dogmatic medical science may now be incubating there as well, with  deconstruction of the misleading HIV/AIDS hypothesis which represents a true danger to global public health.

Posted in HIV does not cause AIDS, HIV risk groups, HIV skepticism, HIV transmission | Tagged: , , , , | 8 Comments »