HIV/AIDS Skepticism

Pointing to evidence that HIV is not the necessary and sufficient cause of AIDS

Highfalutin B***S*** from the Pooh-Bahs of HIV/AIDS

Posted by Henry Bauer on 2010/02/04

Recall Professor Harry Frankfurt’s definition of BS: “a lack of concern with the truth” [B***S*** about HIV from academe via the press, 4 March 2008]. That applies across the board to HIV/AIDS activists and Pooh-Bahs, whose only concern in public statements is to underscore the desperate need for more attention to and more funds for the fight against HIV/AIDS. So even when there’s a truly devastating earthquake in Haiti,

“In Rebuilding Haiti, Fighting HIV/AIDS Must be a Top Priority”

according to David Furnish, Executive Board Member, Elton John AIDS Foundation (EJAF):
“With the horror of the earthquake foremost in our minds as relief efforts continue, it’s easy to forget Haiti’s longtime struggle against HIV/AIDS. In the 1980s, the AIDS epidemic was expected to take the lives of more than one-third of the Haitian population. The stigma surrounding the disease was so severe that the US Centers for Disease Control had listed ‘Haitians’ in addition to ‘homosexuals’ and ‘heroin users’ as leading risk factors in contracting HIV. As recently as 2001, 30,000 Haitians were dying of AIDS each year, leaving hundreds of thousands of children orphaned.
This grim picture changed in recent years, thanks to a coordinated international response. The prevalence of HIV/AIDS in Haiti has decreased dramatically, from a calamitous six percent of the population in 2001 to around two percent today. . . . And while 120,000 Haitians were estimated to be living with the disease before the earthquake, fatalities had begun to decrease dramatically. There were 7,500 deaths from AIDS in 2007, a four-fold reduction from 2001.”

And Furnish goes on to accept, on behalf of the Elton John AIDS Foundation, partial credit for this “dramatic” reduction in HIV prevalence and AIDS deaths in Haiti.
But did Furnish ever think about the numbers he spewed out?

If 6% “HIV-positive” in 2001  became 2% in 2010, then 4% of the population must have died during those 10 years, because — as every HIV/AIDS believer knows — “HIV infection” is incurable and irreversible.

The population of Haiti in 2001 was about 8.7 million (WHO data courtesy of Google).  At 6% that means there were 522,000 “HIV-positive” Haitians in 2001. In 2010 the population will have been around 10 million, at 2% HIV prevalence that means 200,000 “HIV-positive” Haitians. From where does Furnish get his assertion of 120,000? That would be 1.2%, not 2%.

AIDS deaths were decreasing from 30,000 in 2001 to 7,500 in 2007. Assume they remained no lower for the next few years, and that the decline from 2001 to 2007 was linear. That cumulates to about 154,000 total AIDS deaths from 2001 to 2010.

522,000 “HIV-positive” in 2001, minus 154,000 deaths, leaves 368,000 who must still be “HIV-positive” in 2010, PLUS those who were newly infected since 2001. So there must have been not 120,000, and not 200,000, but >368,000 “HIV-positive” Haitians just before the earthquake.

How can Furnish accommodate the deaths he cites with the decline in HIV prevalence that he cites? And for which he praises the work of his own Foundation, in order to make the case for giving even more to that Foundation?

All these numbers are bogus, they do not jibe with one another. But that is quite immaterial when the only purpose of Furnish’s message is that HIV/AIDS is so stark a threat that it must be “top priority”, even in a country where several hundred thousand people just died in an earthquake and something like a million are without food, water, or proper shelter. “Top priority”:
“EJAF provided . . . emergency grants of $100,000 in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake to move antiretroviral treatments to facilities still standing, take on increased patient loads, and manage already under-resourced hospitals”.

13 Responses to “Highfalutin B***S*** from the Pooh-Bahs of HIV/AIDS”

  1. Sepp said

    BS indeed, those guys think that no one checks figures … so they invent out of thin air just to make a point.

    Nothing could be further from people’s minds than “fighting AIDS” in the aftermath of an earthquake. They are scrambling to put a semblance of civilized life together, put a roof over their head which many of them lost, and get some food.

    No one’s going to be concerned to add cancer-causing AZT to that mixture!

    Cancer causing? Yes – check the California Prop 65 list for zidovudine.

    http://www.oehha.ca.gov/prop65/prop65_list/Newlist.html

  2. Martin said

    Furnish can accomodate the discrepancies because he simply ignores them. In addition, being surrounded by “yes-men” and other AIDS establishment acolytes (many of whom are entertainment luminaries), there is little likelihood of Furnish being publicly confronted even occasionally by people who question the discrepancies in the reported statistics.
    As long as AIDS remains well funded — still currently the best funded of any, the bandwagon will keep on rolling along unperturbed by inconvenient discrepancies.

  3. Philip said

    I am holding back a smirk as I type this. Firstly, we see another example of weasel wording. If we question him thus, “hey, how can an earthquake ravaged country be having HIV-AIDS as top priority?” He’ll say “oh but I said A top priority, not THE top priority.”

    Second, (okay am snickering aloud now)… I’m supposed to believe that in an earthquake torn country, lacking in clean food and water, lacking in shelter from the elements, people will be more likely to have unprotected, promiscuous sex, and also have time and resources to engage in injected drug use. Wow.

  4. Francis said

    I wont be surprised if the 200,000 poor souls that died in Haiti will be incorporated into UNAIDS mortality statistics.

    Death by HIV-related falling building.

    And this genocide could have been prevented if the sinister AIDS Denialists had allowed a roll-out of AZT.

    And as the infrastructure of the country has been ruined you will see outbreaks of severe disease, which again will be proof positive of a resurgent HIV epidemic, probably caused through drug resistance.

    Stand by for Lancet in about six months with, “The mechanisms for this renewed epidemic are not fully understood”.

  5. mo79uk said

    It’s another example of the notion that if it’s said by a celebrity it’s got to have credence — don’t go to the trouble of verifying it.
    “Bono, Furnish and Gates cannot possibly be wrong! I mean look they’re successful and appear on TV; they’re messianic!”

    Such fallacies were exposed in the satirical British comedy show Brass Eye by Chris Morris, one popular example was when celebrities were asked to promote spoof charities such as HOECS (“hoax.”). Many celebrities were blind to the hyperbolic absurdities of saying such phrases like “I’m talking Nonce Sense!”
    That particular show was a little controversial, but it paints rather scarily an analogy to the blind devotion to HIV/AIDS campaigns.
    I also apologise for linking to Wikipedia here, but the text here is a correct analysis of that programme: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brass_Eye#Paedophilia_special_.282001.29

  6. Norman B. said

    There is nothing new about special interests attempting to profiteer from a catastrophic natural disaster by diverting much needed relief money. In the wake of the 2004 tsunami, feminists and their organizations banged their drums over an alleged flurry of sex trafficking arising from the disaster’s chaos. A search ensued, but no sex traffickers were even identified, let alone apprehended. As a result, funds desperately needed to give aid to the victims were squandered on political correctness.

  7. Martin said

    What’s sad about entertainment luminaries like Bono, Elton John to name some of the most famous, is that they can not do anything else if “recruited” to the cause. To not vigorously promote the AIDS Establishment party line, would be to do so at their public reputation’s peril. AIDS has become so politically correct that I can’t think of a single person in the entertainment field who is the least bit skeptical.

    • Henry Bauer said

      Martin: I happen to know an entertainment-industry skeptic; and it does support your statement, that this individual feels it career-necessary to remain behind the scenes.

      • Martin said

        Hi Dr. Bauer, In another area, two famous actors, Tom Cruise (for his rejection of the pretentious pseudomedicine of psychiatry and to a lesser extent, his rejection of mainstream religion through Scientology) and Denis Leary who rejected the many of the medical aspects of Autism. Both have suffered some reputation problems — but they are still employed.

  8. Philip said

    I like to point out a recent news bit featuring the Philippine General Hospital. The media trotted it out as “one in ten filipinos tested in nightlife places are positive for HIV”. 40 out of 400 tested positive when a drop of their blood was placed on a mobile test kit.

    Wait. mobile test kit? Weren’t those the ones that are notoriously unreliable? And shouldn’t any positive ELISAs be reconfirmed by ANOTHER ELISA then western blot? That’s irresponsible reporting for you. .

    http://www.youtube.com%252Fwatch%253Fv%253Dc4r_k9kazDM&h=640f768e3f91106653d19370cff4a675&ref=mf

    • Philip said

      update, I confirmed that this data of 10% was made using a single rapid test on 400 so-called “high risk” people (I presume sex workers and/or clients). I was told that this 10% still needed to be confirmed but that the rapid test was “99.6% accurate anyway”.

      I am totally in disbelief on this.

      a) if a test is 99.6% accurate then why need a confirmatory test? (rhetorical question. we all know because the principle behind the elisa is the iffy 1984 Gallo paper anyway)
      b) the idea of “99.6” doesn’t mean a positive result is 99.6% right. This has been expounded many times over and can mean up to half is incorrect as per virusmyth.com
      c) Even if the 99.6 refers to probability a positive result is accurate, we should ask, 99.6 accuracy compared to actual virus incidence, or in comparison with other elisa tests? (i.e. Burke study)
      d) and what about Myron Essex’ study that up to 70% of people exposed to TB can test positive on HIV falsely. In the Philippines, almost everyone tests positive on PPD test – therefore we cannot assume that rapid testing or ANY HIV testing is accurate.

      and finally

      e) hasn’t it occurred to anyone that the increase in Philippine “HIV cases” can be due to the increase in a) testing and b) flu and cervical cancer vaccinations?

      Okay, let’s say that most people are testing now than before, that would mean that there were already a lot of HIV cases in years past. Where are those AIDS cases now?

      What the HELL is the media doing reporting the so-called 10% figure as fact? It’s 10% in RAPID testing. Not 2 elisas, no western blot. RAPID testing, which should always be “confirmed” jeez.

      • Philip said

        a follow up to what I am saying. How can anyone make such conclusions on one rapid test alone? Note this question from thebody.com (http://www.thebody.com/Forums/AIDS/Labs/Archive/TestingHIV/Q48112.html)

        Dear Dr. Mark,

        My husband and I are healthcare professionals who have two adopted children. The mother of both children was tested for HIV at the time of delivery and was negative.

        Recently our 4 year old son, who never even had so much as an ear infection,suffered a brain injury as the result of a fall and tragically died from his injuries.

        My husband and I contacted the state’s organ procurement organization to make arrangements for organ and tissue donation and consented to a wide variety of tests so that this process could proceed. One of the tests we consented to was an Elisa. Our son tested positive on the Elisa on the day of his death. His Western Blot, was, as expected, negative.

        Both our family physician and my husband (who is an obstetrician) have had more than 20 patients positive on Elisa and none positive on Western Blot. While anectdotally, I knew the rate of false positive was high, I was surprised to hear from our local infectious disease specialist, that the rate of false positives in almost 90. Are there cost effective, more accurate screening tests in development or currently being used elsewhere?

        We were victimized by the coroner in our community who following our four year old’s positive elisa, contacted Special Crimes and other law enforcement agencies with the false information that our son was infected with HIV.

        Sincerely, A concerned mother

        I leave the reader to look at the insipid answer.

  9. Francis said

    I’ll throw you another one “SIDS”, Having worked in homicide and completed several specialist courses on the subject, we are taught (by forensic pathologists) to be deeply suspicious of this 1st-world-nation syndrome. Yet it is promoted much like AIDS, gobbles up an inordinate amount of funding and gains celebrity endorsement and public sympathy.

    It has been associated by the mainstream with just about everything (co-factors). I’m surprised that with its propensity to run in families it has not been classified as contagious and viral in nature. Its incidence is closely correlated with GDP so perhaps money is the causative factor. Strangely it is one of the few maladies not to affect poor black Africans.

    Yes, you can add SIDS denier to my list of sins.

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