Prediction: What antiretroviral drugs will accomplish

“U.N. Cites Global Rise in Detection and Treatment of AIDS” (by Celia W. Dugger, 1 October 2009)
“JOHANNESBURG — The number of people being tested for H.I.V. more than doubled in dozens of countries last year, improving detection of AIDS [note the customary equating of “HIV” with “AIDS”] and contributing to a major surge in those being treated. The ranks of people taking antiretroviral drugs in the developing world rose by more than a million to surpass four million people globally, the United Nations reported Wednesday in its 2009 progress report on H.I.V. and AIDS. The vast international effort on AIDS, financed by the United States, European countries and other donors, also ensured that growing numbers of children with AIDS, who had largely been left to die quick, unheralded deaths in past years, also benefited from the life-saving drug therapies. Their number rose to 275,700 in 2008 from 198,000 just a year earlier. And the portion of mothers who got medicines to prevent them from infecting their babies with H.I.V. also rose markedly, to more than half those in need, in the parts of Africa hardest hit by the disease. ‘In the space of one year, you’re seeing a huge ramping up of AIDS services,’ said Mark Stirling, regional director for the United Nations’ efforts against AIDS in eastern and southern Africa. ‘It’s unprecedented. In the acceleration and intensification of reach, 2008 was an extraordinary year.’ . . . more than a million people were put on drugs in the past year — drugs they will need for the rest of their lives — . . .
South Africa now has by far the largest AIDS treatment program in the world. The United Nations estimated that more than 700,000 South Africans were getting the medicines, though advocates here have said the number is actually closer to 600,000 after discounting those who have died or dropped out. . . . And South Africa lacks a male circumcision policy” [emphases added].
The “benefits” of circumcision are now a solidly entrenched shibboleth despite the lack of solid evidence [Circumcision pseudo-science, 2 September 2009; Clinical trials of circumcision against “HIV” “infection” , 10 September 2009].

Prediction 1: The rates of death among young and middle-aged adults from “non-AIDS” conditions like heart failure, kidney failure, liver failure, and assorted cancers will begin to increase significantly within a decade. After all, the NIH Treatment Guidelines have noted for several years already that people on HAART suffer more of these adverse “non-AIDS” events than “AIDS” events; and prominent AIDS activists who die despite benefiting from presumptively the most up-to-date HAART die in middle age, typically of organ failure [“AIDS” deaths: owing to antiretroviral drugs or to lack of antiretroviral treatment?, 2 October 2008].

Prediction 2: The proportion of those “benefiting” from antiretroviral drugs who die or drop out will increase steadily. It is already 1 in 7 among South Africans.

Prediction 3: For years, perhaps many years, these predicted happenings will be masked from general view by fudging of “drop-out” and death statistics. Iatrogenic deaths will be reported as something else. Eventually, though, it will become impossible to hide the real facts since they will become increasingly obvious to lay observers. I hesitate to predict how violent and widespread the public reaction will then be.

Prediction: What antiretroviral drugs will accomplish

“U.N. Cites Global Rise in Detection and Treatment of AIDS” (by Celia W. Dugger, 1 October 2009) http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/01/world/01aids.html?_r=2&partner=rss&emc=rss

“JOHANNESBURG — The number of people being tested for H.I.V. more than doubled in dozens of countries last year, improving detection of AIDS [note the customary equating of “HIV” with “AIDS”] and contributing to a major surge in those being treated. The ranks of people taking antiretroviral drugs in the developing world rose by more than a million to surpass four million people globally, the United Nations reported Wednesday in its 2009 progress report on H.I.V. and AIDS. The vast international effort on AIDS, financed by the United States, European countries and other donors, also ensured that growing numbers of children with AIDS, who had largely been left to die quick, unheralded deaths in past years, also benefited from the life-saving drug therapies. Their number rose to 275,700 in 2008 from 198,000 just a year earlier. And the portion of mothers who got medicines to prevent them from infecting their babies with H.I.V. also rose markedly, to more than half those in need, in the parts of Africa hardest hit by the disease. ‘In the space of one year, you’re seeing a huge ramping up of AIDS services,’ said Mark Stirling, regional director for the United Nations’ efforts against AIDS in eastern and southern Africa. ‘It’s unprecedented. In the acceleration and intensification of reach, 2008 was an extraordinary year.’ . . . more than a million people were put on drugs in the past year — drugs they will need for the rest of their lives — . . .
South Africa now has by far the largest AIDS treatment program in the world. The United Nations estimated that more than 700,000 South Africans were getting the medicines, though advocates here have said the number is actually closer to 600,000 after discounting those who have died or dropped out. . . . And South Africa lacks a male circumcision policy” [emphases added].

The “benefits” of circumcision are now a solidly entrenched shibboleth despite the lack of solid evidence [Circumcision pseudo-science, 2 September 2009;
http://wp.me/8Qhq Clinical trials of circumcision against “HIV” “infection” , 10 September 2009
http://wp.me/p8Qhq-gv].

Prediction 1: The rates of death among young and middle-aged adults from “non-AIDS” conditions like heart failure, kidney failure, liver failure, and assorted cancers will begin to increase significantly within a decade. After all, the NIH Treatment Guidelines have noted for several years already that people on HAART suffer more of these adverse “non-AIDS” events than “AIDS” events; and prominent AIDS activists who die despite benefiting from presumptively the most up-to-date HAART die in middle age, typically of organ failure [“AIDS” deaths: owing to antiretroviral drugs or to lack of antiretroviral treatment?, 2 October 2008]. http://wp.me/p8Qhq-5T

Prediction 2: The proportion of those “benefiting” from antiretroviral drugs who die or drop out will increase steadily. It is already 1 in 7 among South Africans.

Prediction 3: For years, perhaps many years, these predicted happenings will be masked from general view by fudging of “drop-out” and death statistics. Iatrogenic deaths will be reported as something else. Eventually, though, it will become impossible to hide the real facts since they will become increasingly obvious to lay observers. I hesitate to predict how violent and widespread the public reaction will then be.

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Categories:  antiretroviral drugs,  Funds for HIV/AIDS,  HIV risk groups,  HIV skepticism,  HIV tests,  HIV/AIDS numbers,  uncritical media

Tags  antiretroviral drugs in South Africa, Celia W. Dugger, iatrogenic deaths from antiretroviral drugs, circumcision shibboleth