HIV/AIDS Skepticism

Pointing to evidence that HIV is not the necessary and sufficient cause of AIDS

Estonian drug addicts don’t have much sex

Posted by Henry Bauer on 2009/08/13

Actually it’s not only in Estonia, it’s throughout the Slavic world, indeed throughout all of Eastern Europe and as far as northern Asia.

More than a year ago, this remarkable fact was revealed in the specialist literature (Cohen et al., Journal of Clinical Investigation, 118 [2008] 1244-54) by some of the leading experts on HIV/AIDS including Kevin De Cock, director of the World Health Organization’s Division of HIV/AIDS, and several others like Jay Levy who have also been prominent researchers of the “epidemic” since it was first invented. They pointed out [HIV/AIDS ILLUSTRATES COGNITIVE DISSONANCE, 29 April 2008] that in Eastern Europe, about 85% of “HIV-infected” people are injecting drug users, about 5-10% are gay men, and the remaining <10% engage in casual sex. This is in stark contrast to the hotter regions of the globe — in sub-Saharan Africa, for example, fully 50% of “HIV-infected” engage in marital sex; in Latin America and the Caribbean, >60% engage in gay sex but <10% in either marital sex or casual sex.

Of course, these prominent experts expressed the facts in euphemistic form, as though it were that 85% of the “transmission” of “HIV” occurred in Eastern Europe via shared infected needles; but the alert observer will nevertheless have discerned the clear inference that these “infected” drug addicts very rarely have casual or gay sex, since so little “transmission” occurs in that way. (That the categories “MSM” — men who have sex with men — and “Casual sex” were given by Cohen et al. as distinct is no doubt a subtle way of making the politically correct point that gay sex is never casual.)

Through the good offices of a friend in Estonia, I was able to obtain (together with needed translations) data on “HIV” and “AIDS” in that country. Fully confirmed is the finding of Cohen et al. that the “epidemic” of HIV/AIDS is restricted to injecting drug users to such a degree that these individuals must refrain from sex to an extraordinary extent; whether this is because of an altruistic desire not to spread “HIV”, or to the debilitating effects of the drugs, is not mentioned in any of the literature that I have so far seen. The fact, however, is quite clear, and moreover was confirmed by Kevin De Cock when he stated recently that there would never be an epidemic of heterosexually transmitted “HIV” outside Africa:
A 25-year health campaign was misplaced. . . . there will be no generalised epidemic of AIDS in the heterosexual population outside Africa
[WHO SAYS that WE’VE BEEN VERY WRONG about HIV and AIDS? (Clue: WHO = World Health Organization), 10 June 2008 ].

At any rate, here are some of the official data from Estonia. Note first, by the way, that if “HIV” is not a threat in Estonia, then it certainly isn’t a threat in Europe or Northern Asia either, because those regions are even less affected than Estonia (1):


In Estonia, “HIV” was absent or negligible until about 2000, and since 2005 the incidence has seemed stable at about 0.05% (~650 in a population of ~1.3 million). The incidence of AIDS is more than an order of magnitude less than that; and deaths from “HIV disease” seem to have been steady in the last few years at less than 50 out of more than 15,000 deaths from all causes — about 0.3% of all deaths, which is roughly half of the rate in the United States.


The great majority of both HIV and AIDS cases have occurred in drug addicts: 111 of the 191 AIDS cases, 1992-2007, and  between 38% (in 2007)  and 90% (in 2001) of new HIV cases (1). Moreover, up to 40% of all AIDS-related  deaths are actually due to TB (WHO 2006, cited in [1]).


“HIV” is diagnosed by tests that react “positive” under a great variety of conditions, from as unthreatening as flu vaccination to as threatening as malaria or tuberculosis. Drug abuse is unquestionably a health challenge, to put it at its euphemistically absurd mildest. Which is a more likely explanation for the minuscule rate of “HIV” and “AIDS” in Estonia:

1. “HIV” detected in Estonia is an infectious pathogen spread via blood, sex, and infected needles;
2. “HIV” in Estonia represents “positive” tests reflecting everything from vaccination to tuberculosis, but especially (and in most cases) the damage to health caused by drug abuse.

Obviously explanation 2 is far more plausible. In further support, THINK about how shared needling could possibly bring about the sort of brief “epidemic” displayed in the Estonian data. It’s the same sort of situation as I’ve pointed to before in connection with the “outbreaks” of “HIV-positive” babies born to HIV-negative mothers in several places [HIV/AIDS in Italy—and “NEEDLE ZERO”, 11 October 2008; “’Needle ZERO’ again; or, HIV pops up magically out of nowhere”, 15 November 2008]. Where and how did the original infected needle acquire its deadly burden, a burden which cannot long survive outside body fluids?

To my mind, the data supports the “chemical AIDS” hypothesis as an explanation for the great majority of Estonian “HIV” and “AIDS” reports; as does the situation in Italy [HIV/AIDS in Italy—and “NEEDLE ZERO”, 11 October 2008; “Needle ZERO” again; or, HIV pops up magically out of nowhere, 15 November 2008; Official Italian data: no causal connection between HIV and AIDS, 12 July 2009; Italian analysis of HIV/AIDS data, 17 July 2009].

(1) Prevalence of HIV and Other Infections and Risk Behaviour among Injecting Drug Users in Latvia, Lithuania And Estonia In 2007,, accessed 24 July 2009
(2) Report on HIV/AIDS through 31 December 2007,, accessed 24 July 2009
(3), accessed 24 July 2009

or, HIV pops up magically out of nowhere, 15 November 2008

7 Responses to “Estonian drug addicts don’t have much sex”

  1. Jean Umber said

    The paper from Bruneau & al. was nevertheless clear :

    In summary, Montreal NEP [needle exchange program] users appear to have a higher HIV seroconversion rates than NEP nonusers. Discussion p8. [In other words, those who shared needles (NEP nonusers) had a LOWER rate of “HIV+” than those who did not share needles! (NEP users)]

    It is inconceivable that these “experts” have not been able to understand that drug use itself was responsible for seroconversion. [It seems plausible that those who did not share needles, because they could afford to buy their own, were also able to afford more drugs than the needle-sharers. So the higher “HIV+” rate among non-sharers is plausibly owing to more drug abuse leading to the ill-health consequences reflected in “HIV+” results that are specifically owing to drug abuse.]

  2. Sabine Kalitzkus said

    Yes, Henry, you are very right.

    “MSM” never have casual sex. “MSM” keep a detailed calendar. “MSM” plan every date – excuse me please, every conference of course – at least three months in advance, with date, time, location, meeting point at location, duration of the conference in minutes and seconds, required equiment (for example: boots, whip, first-aid kit). “MSM” are the book-keepers of sex.

  3. Allen said

    Dr. Bauer,

    Very interesting data. I wonder if there are differences in testing methods for these regions. For instance, how is an “HIV” diagnosis determined? Do they use an Elisa and WB combined with a risk assessment as they do in the US? Just an Elisa as in the UK? No test at all and only a clinical assessment as in parts of Africa? How many and which protein bands do they use? Possibly more important, do they use results of behavior questionnaires to “assist” in diagnosis? If so, do those questionnaires inquire about sex? Or do they focus on drug use?

    • Henry Bauer said

      Allen: Good questions, I’ll see whether my Estonian-speaking friend can help. However, I think it’s clear that they do use some sort of “HIV” test, because they report “AIDS” and “HIV” separately and therefore don’t rely solely on clinical indications.

  4. Sabine Kalitzkus said


    Estonian junkies might not have much sex. To fill the void, though, migrants in the European Union tend to have too much sex — especially women originating from Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and, as always, MSM.

    In July the “European Center for Disease Prevention and Control” (ECDC) published a report on migrant health and “HIV” epidemiology:

    Click to access 0907_TER_Migrant_health_HIV_Epidemiology_review.pdf

    The report states:

    “A substantial and increasing proportion of AIDS and HIV reports acquired through heterosexual intercourse are people with a different geographical origin from that of the country of report, largely from SSA.”


    “The number of HIV infections reported in Europe has experienced a marked increase in 1999–2006, both in natives and migrants. This increase has to be interpreted in the context of the implementation of HIV reporting in the EU, which is not yet complete.”

    Thus we should expect a further increase of “HIV infections” as reporting is heading toward its completion.

    The “HIV/AIDS-Factsheet” on the ECDC-website notes:

    “The predominant route of transmission was heterosexual contact (53%) (…) Over a third of the cases were diagnosed among men who have sex with men. However, because of the relative size of this population, men who have sex with men remain at greater risk than most heterosexuals.” (Emphases mine.)

    If there’s any logic behind these words, I certainly missed it.

    The report concludes:

    “These figures call for action in gender-specific HIV prevention and treatment policies on national level.”

    Famous for its traditionally submissive obedience to authority-figures, Germany couldn’t resist creating an immediate strategy to attack the most relatively sized group: MSM.

    From September through November 2009 50 projects organize 500 events country-wide to catch all MSM who have not yet been tested. They will hunt up untested MSM wherever MSM traditionally gather, even in and around cruising areas.

    So, if you don’t want to get tested, keep an eye on whom you pick up in the town park at night. It might be an official tester, operating lustfully under cover. And please treat him nicely. He doesn’t mean to do you any harm — he’s just completing the reports.

    • Henry Bauer said

      Sabine: Very interesting, thank you.
      1. Once again: People of Sub-Saharan African ancestry tend to test “HIV+” far more often than others.
      2. “Logic”: I think they mean, >1/3 of all “HIV+” are MSM, but MSM are <1/3 of the whole population, so MSM are at greater relative risk than others of being found "HIV+".
      3. The testing police may mean no harm, but they will be responsible at least indirectly for the harm that comes to those healthy people who happen to be "HIV+" and who are then made ill by antiretrovirals.

  5. Sabine Kalitzkus said


    Re 1: Yes. Wherever they live on Earth.

    Re 2: Thanks for you logical help in a field that abandoned all logic by nature.

    Re 3: Perhaps this was a misunderstanding. There will be no police around doing this dirty job. I expect almost all hunters to be MSM. A heterosexual man wouldn’t show up in a gay bar or a gay sauna or — beware! — at a cruising area at night, would he? The majority of heterosexual men are homophobic to their bones.

    And I think testing itself is extremely harmful — mentally.

    The campaigners (funded by the German taxpayer and the pharmaceutical industry) launched a new website last year, which — among other things — includes a community forum.

    In a long thread young men — mostly very young men in their early twenties — are discussing whether ARVs, when used as a “pre-exposure-prophylaxis” like the “anti-baby-pill” for women, would enable bare-backing without becoming ill.

    Considering the “side”-effects of ARVs, I think this new development is nothing but depressing. Thousands of young men being destroyed at the very beginning of their lives…

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