HIV demographics are predictable; HIV is not a contagious infection
Posted by Henry Bauer on 2008/08/27
The relative frequencies of HIV-positive tests in any group of people are predictable: the rate varies with race, sex, and age in a regular, reproducible, manner; and its geographic distribution reflects the racial compositions of the respective populations. The absolute magnitude of the rate of positive tests is determined by the degree and type of health challenge to which the tested group is or has been exposed.
Those regularities and trends are what I found astonishing, since they prove that those “HIV” tests do not track an infection; see the data in Part I of The Origin, Persistence and Failings of HIV/AIDS Theory. Because this is so crucial a point, I continue to draw attention to it as I come across more data that confirm the generality of the dependence of “HIV” on the variables of age, sex, race, and geography. For example:
— Married women test positive more often than prostitutes or widows, incongruous for an STD but obvious since positive HIV tests are most common in adults of young-middle-age and married women tend to be older than prostitutes and younger than widows; see TO AVOID HIV INFECTION, DON’T GET MARRIED 18 November 2007.
— Tuberculosis is very likely to produce a positive “HIV” test, its victims test positive as often as do the “high-risk” groups of gay men and drug abusers, see Figure 22, p. 83 in The Origin, Persistence and Failings of HIV/AIDS Theory; confirmed quite often in news reports about how TB must be treated if HIV/AIDS is to be defeated, see for example IS TUBERCULOSIS AN APHRODISIAC?, 4 January 2008;
TUBERCULOSIS AGAIN, 27 January 2008.
— The age-variation of positive tests, peaking in young-middle-age, is seen also in Rwanda, Kenya, Lesotho, and Tanzania; those data also confirm the suggestion in US data that black women are particularly prone to test positive; and the Kenyan data also show that females in their teens are more likely to test positive than teenaged males, just as in the USA (and, again, incongruous for an STD, especially one that is found most frequently among gay men); see HIV DEMOGRAPHICS FURTHER CONFIRMED: HIV IS NOT SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED, 26 February 2008.
— The same tendency to test HIV-positive in young-middle-age is seen also in death rates from “HIV disease”, which is truly odd if there’s a latent period and if antiretroviral treatment has a life-extending benefit; see “HIV DISEASE” IS NOT AN ILLNESS, 19 March 2008.
— The variations of positive HIV-tests with geography, population density, and race described in my book are replicated in a CDC publication on the geographic distribution of “AIDS” in rural areas, see REGULAR AS CLOCKWORK: HIV, THE TRULY UNIQUE “INFECTION”, 1 April 2008.
— The racial disparities in “HIV” are reproduced everywhere in the world, and they explain the geographic distribution of “HIV” globally as well as in the United States; see RACIAL DISPARITIES IN TESTING “HIV-positive”: IS THERE A NON-RACIST EXPLANATION?, 4 May 2008.
— One of the striking things about these racial disparities is that they subsist WITHIN HIGH-RISK GROUPS as well as in the general population. Not only in the United States, see The Origin, Persistence and Failings of HIV/AIDS Theory, but also in Britain:
“British men of South Asian origin who have sex with men have a significantly lower rate of HIV infection than other ethnic groups, including white men, the first survey of gay men from different ethnic groups in the United Kingdom has found”, according to Jonathan Elford in a presentation at the 27th international AIDS conference in Mexico City; BMJ 337  a1182. Though this was described as the first such survey, an earlier publication had noted the same disparities: compared to gay white British men, gay black men in Britain are 2.06 times as likely to test HIV-positive while gay Asians in Britain are only 40% as likely to test positive, see Hickson et al., “HIV, sexual risk, and ethnicity among men in England who have sex with men”, Sexually Transmitted Infections 80 (2004) 443-45.
The variation of HIV-positive tests with age is seen also in women in India: the rates were 0.21% up to age 29, 0.36% in the age range 30-34, 0.18% at ages 35-39 and 0.13% above age 40: once again, rising from the teens into young middle-age and then decreasing again (Silverman et al., “Intimate partner violence and HIV infection among married Indian women”, JAMA 300  703-710). As noted in my book, the exact age at which the tendency to test positive peaks does vary somewhat with sex, race, and state of health, but it seems to be no later than the lower 40s and rarely before the 30s.
A bonanza of supporting demographic facts is in the South African National HIV Prevalence, HIV Incidence, Behaviour and Communication Survey, 2005.
The usual variation with age is shown in the Survey’s Table 3.10, reflecting the standard generalities: the HIV-positive rate decreases from birth into the lower teens, then increases into young adulthood and decreases again after young-middle-age. There is the often-seen difference between the sexes in the ages where the frequency of HIV-positive peaks, in this case lower for females, in the range 25-29. The male-to-female ratio also decreases from birth, increases from young adulthood to later ages and possibly declines again — compare the results from public testing sites in the United States, Table 25, p. 98 in The Origin, Persistence and Failings of HIV/AIDS Theory.
Pregnancy is one of the conditions that can bring about a positive HIV-test: at every age, women at pre-natal clinics tested positive more often than non-pregnant women in the same age group; and after pregnancy the rate of positives declined again (except among the teenagers), see Table 3.14 in the Survey:
The same racial disparities are seen as in other regions of the world, black >> white (from the Survey’s Table 3.17):However, something is wrong with at least some of these numbers. As it stands, 5.6% of whites and 4.2% of coloreds must have died between 2002 and 2005 in order to bring the rates down to those extents.
Table 3.18 shows the same racial disparities in annual incidence of “HIV infection”: 3.4% among Africans, 0.3-0.5% among whites, coloreds, and Indians.
The annual incidence among adults is, just like the overall prevalence, highest at ages 25-34: 3.3% among 15-24-years olds, 7.1% for 25-34, 4.0% for 35-44, 1.7% at 45-54, 0.4% at ≥55. It is lowest among 10-14-year olds at 0.4% and higher among younger children, 0.8% at 2-4 years and 1.5% at 5-9 years. One might have thought that such high rates among children below the age of sexual activity would have brought at least some people to question whether sexual transmission of a virus is involved, since this phenomenon is seen in other countries as well. Thus the prevalence (not incidence, now) of HIV-positive children in 2004 in Botswana was 6.0% among males and 6.8% among females aged 18 months to 4 years; 5.9% among males and 6.2% among females aged 5-9; and 3.6% among males and 3.9% among females aged 10-14. In Zimbabwe, the prevalence was 5.8% among children aged 6-8.
For every age group, these South African data confirm the tentative suggestion (see pp. 74, 217, 246 in The Origin, Persistence and Failings of HIV/AIDS Theory) that black women are much more prone than others to test HIV-positive: male-to-female rates are lower among blacks than among other racial groups,. The following Table uses data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports on tests at public sites for 1995, 1996, 1997-98, and 1999-2004.
Unfortunately but predictably, the South African Survey takes for granted that relative rates of testing HIV-positive reflect sexual behavior, and nigh on 2/3 of the whole Report discusses behavioral issues. As I’ve pointed out often, if one accepts the sexual-transmission view, then one must also believe that black people actually behave as described in the most extreme racist stereotypes — see ANTHONY FAUCI EXPLAINS RACIAL DISPARITIES IN “HIV/AIDS”, 3 June 2008 and HIV/AIDS THEORY IS INESCAPABLY RACIST, 19 May 2008, and chapters 5-7 in The Origin, Persistence and Failings of HIV/AIDS Theory.