More HIV/AIDS GIGO (garbage in and out): “HIV” and risk of death
Posted by Henry Bauer on 2008/07/12
HAART had supposedly saved at least 3 million years of life by 2003, thereby supposedly justifying the expenditure of $21 billion in 2006 from federal US government funds alone—how much more was disbursed or used by charities and other NGOs is not known. On examination, that claimed 3 million turned out to be 1.2 million: and since these are not lives but life-years, they represent the lives of perhaps 6% of AIDS victims [Antiretroviral therapy has SAVED 3 MILLION life-years, 1 July 2008;
HIV/AIDS SCAM: Have antiretroviral drugs saved 3 million life-years?, 6 July 2008]. Not so impressive after a quarter century of research costing >$100 billion.
Another more recently trumpeted claim of benefits from antiretroviral therapy is that the “excess mortality” ascribed to “HIV” has decreased substantially in the era of HAART (Bhaskaran et al. for the CASCADE collaboration, “Changes in the risk of death after HIV seroconversion compared with mortality in the general population”, JAMA 300 51-59). This article resembles the older one in its reliance on computer modeling to produce desired results; in addition, it displays astonishing ignorance of such HIV/AIDS basics as the latent period of 10 years between “infection” and illness; and it deserves a Proxmire Golden Fleece Award for discovering what was already known.
The methodology is described in laudable detail, which reminded me of the V-P who always got his requested budget because he submitted it as a computer print-out [Antiretroviral therapy has SAVED 3 MILLION life-years, 1 July 2008]; how many unqualified fools like me would rush in when Bhaskaran et al. talk of “the familiar Cox hazard ratio”, “Kaplan-Meier methods”, “Poisson-based model”, and use of Stata version 10 for the statistical analysis? Yet the weakness of the whole approach is separate from any possible technical flaws: assertions and assumptions are made that are demonstrably wrong. [Which is not to deny that specialists might well also question the applicability of any one or all of those mentioned techniques to this particular task. Specialists might also want more information than the statement that “The median duration of follow-up was 6.3 years (range, 1 day to 23.8 years), with 16 344 individuals (99%) having more than 1 month of follow-up” — what exactly does “follow-up” mean here? Were not all of these patients monitored throughout the study?]
Bhaskaran et al. ascribe to antiretroviral drugs the lower mortality in the HAART era compared to the pre-HAART era. It is at least equally plausible that this reduction in “excess mortality” was owing to the abandonment of high-dose AZT monotherapy. After all, deaths from AIDS in the United States about doubled from 1987 to 1990, and increased by more than another 50% from 1990 to 1995, dropping back then to 1987 levels (National Center for Health Statistics, Table 42, p. 236, in “Health, United States, 2007”; “HIV DISEASE” IS NOT AN ILLNESS, 19 March 2008; http://aras.ab.ca/news.html, June 30, “Disproof of HIV/AIDS Theory”).
Bhaskaran et al. themselves admit—albeit only in by-the-way fashion in concluding comments—that their analysis is rotten at the core: “it is likely that HIV-infected individuals in our study differ from the general population in other ways”. Yes indeed! Or rather, it’s not that the studied group (HIV-positives) is “likely” to differ in multiple ways from the “control” group (HIV-negative general population), it’s a certainty that they do. On the mainstream view of HIV/AIDS, HIV-positive people have been exposed to health risks that others have not, bespeaking significant behavioral differences. On my view and that of many others, “HIV-positive” is—like a fever—an indication that the immune system has reacted against something or other, that HIV-positive people have been exposed to health challenges that HIV-negative people have not. So differences in mortality between these two groups may have nothing at all to do with “HIV”.
The gross ignorance of HIV/AIDS matters displayed in this article is illustrated by the statement, also by-the-way in the concluding comments, that “race/ethnicity are also likely to differ among HIV-infected persons”. How could these authors not know that “HIV” is found disproportionately among people of African ancestry?
Here is a further illustration of incredible ignorance of HIV/AIDS matters: “Interestingly, we found that by 2004-2006, the risk of death in the first 5 years following seroconversion was similar to that of the general population . . . further research will be needed before our finding of no excess mortality in the first 5 years of infection in 2004-2006 can be generalized beyond those diagnosed early in infection”.
Almost from the very beginning, one of the salient mysteries about the lentivirus (slow virus) HIV has been the “latent period” between presumed infection by HIV and the appearance of any symptoms of illness. That latent period is nowadays agreed to be about 10 years. Therefore there should be no excess mortality at all for an average of 10 years after infection among people not being treated with HAART, and of course for much longer if HAART staves off AIDS. Unless, of course, “HIV” is causing death in symptom-less people, so that deaths from “HIV disease” during the latent period are deaths without apparent cause. It seems unlikely that such a phenomenon would long have gone unnoticed. Here is a typical representation of the supposed progression from infection to illness and death:
The death rate shown during the putative latent period is flat and runs along the baseline.
All this makes the authors’ modest admission that “Our study has some limitations” more than a little inadequate. The many obvious deficiencies in this article, notably the ignorance of latent period, reflect unkindly not only on the authors but also on the journal, its editorial procedures, and the lack of competence or diligence of the “peer reviewers” who presumably were engaged to comment expertly on whether this deserved to be published. What on earth has happened to medical “science”? Or was it always so defective in such obvious ways?
As to Golden Fleece Awards, there is the finding that “those exposed through IDU at significantly higher risk than those exposed through sex between males”. Yes indeed, drugs are not good for you! But then it has been routine among HIV/AIDS experts to discount the risks of illegal drugs by comparison to those of “HIV”, to the extent that there are continuing campaigns to provide drug addicts with fresh, clean, needles; and occasional surprise is expressed that injecting drug users typically have health problems [COCAINE AND HEROIN AREN’T GOOD FOR YOU! — a Golden Fleece Award, 13 June 2008]. In the end, do seem to be aware of this: “It is unlikely that HIV infection is the only factor leading to increased mortality rates among those exposed through IDU” because of, among other things, “the direct risks of substance abuse”.
No less surprising (to Bhaskaran et al., that is) than the poorer health of drug addicts is the finding that older people are less able than younger people to stave off health challenges: “Older age at seroconversion was associated with a higher risk of excess mortality . . . there was a clear gradient of increasing risk of excess mortality with increasing age at seroconversion”.
In other words, the older you are when you “seroconvert”—become infected, according to mainstream views, or encounter some sort of health challenge, according to Perth-Group-type views—the more likely you are to succumb, compared to people of the same age who have not encountered the same challenge. Who would have thought it?
Yet another finding worthy of attention was that “Females were at consistently lower risk [of dying] than males”. On the one hand, even most lay people are aware that women have a greater life expectancy than men (in most countries and in all developed ones). On the other hand, might not this finding with respect specifically to “HIV-positive” have stimulated some thought among the authors, whether this means anything specifically with respect to “HIV-positive” as signifying infection by a virus?
Here, as so often, some of what I’ve written might appear to accept that HIV is infectious and causes illness. That is not so; I am merely pointing out that even on its own terms, the HIV/AIDS view would still be wrong about the claimed benefits of antiretroviral drugs: there is no evidence that they prolong life. At best, as Dr. Juliane Sacher has pointed out, they might bring a temporary benefit by acting as antibiotics, for they certainly are inimical to life.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT: I am grateful to Fulano de Tal (a commonly used pseudonym, compare “John Doe”) who pointed out that an earlier version of this post included speculations based on US data that are irrelevant here since the CASCADE study includes only European cohorts. I also added the graph in response to one of “Tal”‘s comments, because I was not able to put the graph into my response.
This entry was posted on 2008/07/12 at 4:19 pm and is filed under antiretroviral drugs, experts, Funds for HIV/AIDS, HIV absurdities, HIV and race, HIV as stress, HIV does not cause AIDS, HIV varies with age, HIV/AIDS numbers, M/F ratios. Tagged: Anne M. Johnson, CASCADE Collaboration, computer model, false assumptions, Faroudy Boufassa, Fulano de Tal, invalid controls, Juliane Sacher, Kholoud Porter, Krishnan Bhaskaran, latent period, Mette Sannes, Osamah Hamouda, Paul C. Lambert. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.